ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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B1S2,

Looking at 3 year chart of S&P500, Sep to January seem to be advancing above 20 EMA with minimum retracing, though from February onwards index seems to be swinging within 20 point range off 20 EMA line, right now it's positioned at 20 EMA level. Looking at patterns there is nothing to suggest that we would get a sell-off right now, though 200 EMA suggests 1250 range, which is good for your positional trades. Your thoughts?

Michael,

Considering the above, that might suggest that success rate of indicator based trading could be dependant on time of year it is applied, as you have pointed out earlier. Comparison could be made with using indicators during high volume times of the day and during chop zone where price action seems to be more range bound.

EDIT: My personal outlook is more on the short side for the next 7-10 days, unless I see a positive pattern formation in the daily charts (engulfing or a bullish hammer), therefore I am going to wait this morning's reaction to the further decline in crude futures and base it on that.
 
I found a remarkable site from an unusual guy jim kane, I know really nothing about his methods or products, but i like his articles....He is a discrete/manual trader but he points out what i think is the key in discrete trading:

Kane:
...When I enter a trade, I have already decided how I will react to every possible outcome. I mean that literally, every possible outcome. I figure out every possible variation on the outcomes and pre-decide what I will do. This way I can be an execution robot when in a trade. All decisions are made in the calm cool of the off-market hours. Then when I trade, I am simply looking for certain 'patterns' and when I find them, I make my decision as to whether or not I want to take the trade.
If I do choose to take the trade, I already know where my initial protective stop will be, how and when I may take profits (note that this does not necessarily mean 'profit targets'), how I may move up my stops on a trail, and so on. Every trade I get into, and I mean every single one, you could freeze time at that point and say "Jim, say it goes up x points to here, turns and goes down y points, then turns and… what would you do?" I will be able to answer instantaneously without thinking, every trade, every time.
I have developed this skill over many, many years of trading, and I can do it 'instantaneously', because I evolved to doing a fair amount of daytrading, where 'instantaneously' is the slowest that you can be. Any delay and you are toast.....


http://www.kanetrading.com/free_art/elements.html

So, in the end is not too much difference between mechanical(coded) and manual trading, it`s just not possible or very hard to code any condition and the solution is often a poor one.

The time from ~ october to januar is the most bullish time of the year, by looking on seasonalcharts, the worst by stats june-sept.

So far i can not see any downside, not on weekly, daily, or 60 min, and i don`t really know why i still have a small position in May06 put SPY.... :-)

indicators work great in markets with high volume and large, nice swings, and they fail in flat, choppy, spiky market, so you need some "brainfilters" when and how to use it, or switch to a lower or higher timeframe where more meaningful readings are possible. I have no easy and ready answer to this problem myself...
 

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Quote from romik:

Spike and George, could you maybe comment on what are the main time frames that your systems analyse or do they track multiple? Thank you.
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Hourly, quarterly and 3 minutes.

Analysis are a combination of the values in the different timeframes. So no analysis per timeframe but all combined.
 
I LOOK AT THE 10 MIN CHAR T ONLY BUT I ONLY INTRADAY TRADE YM................I DO RECOMMEND USE MORE THAN 1 SCREEN.......AND MOST EXPERIENCED TRADERS USE MORE THAN 1 TIME FRAME......SIMULTANEOUSLY........AND THAT IS GREAT...........MY SYSTEM READS THE SAME ON ALL SO I JUST USE THE ONE THAT IS BEST FOR STOPS, DOESN'T LULL ME TO SLEEP, DOESN'T LIE TO ME AS OFTEN AS SHORTER CHARTS AND STRIKES THE HAPPY MIDDLE GROUND OF LONGER AND SHORTER....AND DOESN'T OVERLOAD THE EYES AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MIND................I WOULD SAY SPIKE HAS THE BEST APPROACH FOR MOST TRADERS..........NEVER TAKE MY COMMENTS AS ANY MORE THAN UNPROFESSIONAL RAMBLINGS.........
 
clear bullish divergence just now on 12 minute chart with respect to both MACD Histogram and RSI. 60 minute is beginning to show those signs as well although the hourly bar in question is 45 minutes away from completion. Price is currently 1303.25
 
Quote from spike500:

Hourly, quarterly and 3 minutes.

Analysis are a combination of the values in the different timeframes. So no analysis per timeframe but all combined.
More...
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Option Coach had a helpful read on 2 day charts;
like 5 day hourly charts, not necessarly as a main work chart.

Spike 500;
like a quarterly chart, look @ them about every seven[7] days ;
however i was thinking of quarterly charts which contain 3 months for 1 candle, you probably meant 15 minutes/quarter/hour:cool:

Hey porgie we wont hold you 10 minutes charts & ''unprofessional ''ramblings against you;
we like professional work .............................................,,,,,,,,,,,,
but not in the strictest sense which requires a huge increase for data costs:p
 
Quote from romik:

B1S2,

Looking at 3 year chart of S&P500, Sep to January seem to be advancing above 20 EMA with minimum retracing, though from February onwards index seems to be swinging within 20 point range off 20 EMA line, right now it's positioned at 20 EMA level. Looking at patterns there is nothing to suggest that we would get a sell-off right now, though 200 EMA suggests 1250 range, which is good for your positional trades. Your thoughts?
More...
20 is the only average that I ever look at-- 20 day 20 week 20 12 minute period etc. It is generally strong resistance either way and I consider it the most important. We are just now beginning to cross the 20 on daily continuation charts. Notice though that the daily continuation chart has Class A bearish Histogram divergence with the closing on 4/25 and also a Class B RSI divergence there as well. This initially suggest a retest of 1290 again. Weekly continuation charts have been brewing up bearish divergence on both indicators for quite some time which suggests 1250 and lastly monthly continuation charts have been working up bearish divergences since March 04, which suggest a move down at some point to 1180 or lower. This is why I find it interesting that everytime we have a 5 point up day, the bulls get excited about a fantastic bull market. Those of us who are long term postional traders are very patient and this is why I add to my positional short position. I must add that I only recently starting shorting this upmove within the last 60 to 70 points.
 
I must 100% disagree with data costs comment.......the real cost is in hours days and years spent.....u can't buy what that teaches.........it ain't for sale........all t he information in the world will only befuddle you........it is not knowlledge of market that is the answer.........it is basic understanding of how to operate your system...........and the emotional stability to follow the rules and tolerate the pressure of being wrong and losing money........the better t he system and your emotional control the less you lose so that losing becomes about like taking a drink of water........... ......the jim kane guy is 1000% correct..........or more...........what you need is not for sale......it is yours to earn......
 
Quote from porgie:

I must 100% disagree with data costs comment.......the real cost is in hours days and years spent.....u can't buy what that teaches.........it ain't for sale........all t he information in the world will only befuddle you........it is not knowlledge of market that is the answer.........it is basic understanding of how to operate your system...........and the emotional stability to follow the rules and tolerate the pressure of being wrong and losing money........the better t he system and your emotional control the less you lose so that losing becomes about like taking a drink of water........... ......the jim kane guy is 1000% correct..........or more...........what you need is not for sale......it is yours to earn......
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Porgie, I agree with the fact that one must learn and develop their own system and I agree that it generally takes time. As I indicated in another thread , if you don't learn your own system , you will never learn the market through and through to where it is second nature. As I have said--You must be your own Guru.
 
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