ES Journal - 2023/2024

flash crash said:
According to this article, every time is different.

"The Morningstar US Market Index rose more than 21% in the 12 months following the beginning of the Fed’s 1995 easing cycle, as the economy achieved a rare soft landing. But returns cratered more than 10% when the Fed began cutting rates in 2001 as the dot-com bubble burst."

What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Starts Cutting Rates? | Morningstar

In the current context, the Fed, if it does cut rates, isn't doing so because it sees a weakening economy. It would be doing so because it feels inflation is now "under control" and that rates can be somewhat more accommodative. In other words, the Fed is not cutting in a belated response to an ongoing crisis that has finally become obvious even to the Fed. With the stock market at all time highs and corporate earnings still strong, this rate cut would possibly be expected to have a response similar to 1995's cuts than to the crisis cuts of 2001 and 2007-2009. Greenspan had increased rates in response to hot inflation data, and as inflation cooled, the Fed started to cut rates.

The main difference between then and now is that Greenspan acted far more quickly to stomp on inflation than the current bozos who insisted it was "transitory." Powell is a meathead.
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Ah, okay.
 
flash crash said:
Greenspan acted far more quickly to stomp on inflation than the current bozos who insisted it was "transitory." Powell is a meathead.
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As funny as your comment is, Greenspan was in no way "quick to stomp on inflation". I was there trading in the 90s. He raised the interest rates in the late 90s to cool the runway stock market, which was very similar to what's happening now, not inflation. But then he dragged his feet when the market tanked in early 2000 and had to cut rates before the FOMC, viz "surprise rate cut". In that regard, I ain't sure who is the bigger bozo, Greenspan or Powell.
 
nice start.
shorted everything out of the gate.
made on es and nq. ym stopped me
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