ES Journal - 2023/2024

As of Friday's Close - SPX is 43.65 points from all time highs. Less than 1 %.

I figure there's a good chance we put in the September lows already and the Kamala rally continues - barring any new headlines.
 
mervyn said:
when in doubt, locate a fire exit in a crowd place.
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Coffee drippings included to prove authenticity of both the mug and the message.
 
christhesquid said:
Looks like someone took shots at Trump again.

Bullish. I'm going all in.
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I'm not sure anyone will take the bait this time. The first attempt seemed really friggin' weird IMO.

For instance, 1) how did the assailant get into the rally with his gun and apparently a ladder to get on top of the building? 2) How could Secret Service not have known about it, before or after? 3) Even worse, how could the assailant fire so many rounds of bullets from such a close distance and still miss the target? 4) Apparently the Secret Service sniper, who took down the assailant, was already on the roof. Why did he wait until like 50 shots were fired by the assailant? 5) Why was Trump screaming "my shoes, my shoes" as he was escorted out? Shoes would be the last thing on anybody's mind in such a situation. 6) And that famous picture with his clenched fist high up in the air. To say that was just a coincidence or a mere luck is, hmmm. 7) Lastly, there's not even a tiny scar on his ear.

And now another assassination attmept? I ain't buying it.
 
schizo said:
I'm not sure anyone will take the bait this time. The first attempt seemed really friggin' weird IMO.

For instance, 1) how did the assailant get into the rally with his gun and apparently a ladder to get on top of the building? 2) How could Secret Service not have known about it, before or after? 3) Even worse, how could the assailant fire so many rounds of bullets from such a close distance and still miss the target? 4) Apparently the Secret Service sniper, who took down the assailant, was already on the roof. Why did he wait until like 50 shots were fired by the assailant? 5) Why was Trump screaming "my shoes, my shoes" as he was escorted out? Shoes would be the last thing on anybody's mind in such a situation. 6) And that famous picture with his clenched fist high up in the air. To say that was just a coincidence or a mere luck is, hmmm. 7) Lastly, there's not even a tiny scar on his ear.

And now another assassination attmept? I ain't buying it.
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Great questions. We'll never know. :mad:
 
christhesquid said:
This time is different, bro! ;)
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According to this article, every time is different.

"The Morningstar US Market Index rose more than 21% in the 12 months following the beginning of the Fed’s 1995 easing cycle, as the economy achieved a rare soft landing. But returns cratered more than 10% when the Fed began cutting rates in 2001 as the dot-com bubble burst."

What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Starts Cutting Rates? | Morningstar

In the current context, the Fed, if it does cut rates, isn't doing so because it sees a weakening economy. It would be doing so because it feels inflation is now "under control" and that rates can be somewhat more accommodative. In other words, the Fed is not cutting in a belated response to an ongoing crisis that has finally become obvious even to the Fed. With the stock market at all time highs and corporate earnings still strong, this rate cut would possibly be expected to have a response similar to 1995's cuts than to the crisis cuts of 2001 and 2007-2009. Greenspan had increased rates in response to hot inflation data, and as inflation cooled, the Fed started to cut rates.

The main difference between then and now is that Greenspan acted far more quickly to stomp on inflation than the current bozos who insisted it was "transitory." Powell is a meathead.
 
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