ES Journal - 2023/2024

A more friendly picture with the same effect would be a bull poking at a sad bear or something to that effect.

bull beats the bear.jpg
 
As long as Wall Street, e.g. Goldman Sachs, et al believe that Harris will win they're going to keep buying.

Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP - Bloomberg

“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.

The best historical predictor of the winner of the White House has been the stock market. If the market continues to rise and is sitting at or even just near all time highs on election day, the US will probably vote for Kamala.

If instead the market is in the dumpster, get ready for the second coming of the Trumpster.
7/21:

The likelihood of Trump win/loss will be manifested in the markets by an inversely proportional move in the indexes. He wins, we go down. He loses, we go up. And the markets will reflect that, reacting in kind to what is actually going on - prior to the election. And that is 1000% going against the grain. But I'm right.
 
First major level on the upside would be 5630. Last week's high.

If we get there and go through that - I think we're gunning for the August Close at 5658,25.

I'm not super-confident, but enough that I'm a small sized long here comfortable holding for a bit.

To make a statement above that - 5680 would be the icing on the cake.
 
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