ES Journal - 2023/2024

[mervyn]

I think you may get your “V” in the afternoon today, but I’m still thinking we continue going down and hit the 4350-4400 zone, just not today.

It’s happening faster than I anticipated though. I think we’ll bounce up this afternoon and hangout a little bit the next couple of days before we get down to 4400 and below.

that’s bear market mark, possible but not this year, the big techs will have to crash by 50% to go there.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Monthly chart still looking good for SP/ES, but it doesn't react quickly enough for me so I pay most attention to the weekly chart for longer term bias. The fact that the monthly still looks decent is what has prevented me going short.

For example, Take a look at the monthly chart from October 1987. It really doesn't give warning to the 87 crash, but you'll notice that the monthly uptrend never waivered. However, pull up the weekly and the impending doom can be easily seen. That's what I see on weekly and monthly right now. i see long bias in the medium term ended and flat to down beginning----

 

[schizo]

Have a good weekend, y'all. This chop is driving me crazy, so gonna call it quits early.

 

[Bad_Badness]

Hey, we're all noobs at heart here.

Sorry, I am not intending to degrade ANYONE. I need to be very clear, I could not personally trade like you guys too. I can barely watch the algo work. Heart rate increases, occasional cold sweats and want to wet myself.

My hats are all off to all the regulars. If I point out anything like the above, it is because I have done it more than a few times, probably more than a handful of times, and in fact dozens of time on somethings. I have given up so many gains being greedy, second guessing, fatigue, hubris and just straight up dumbness.

At this point I am like some smart ass, no skin in the game, armchair after the fact pontificator!

That being said, I appreciate the community and will always try to add some value to the thread.

 

[schizo]

Sorry, I am not intending to degrade ANYONE. I need to be very clear, I could not personally trade like you guys too. I can barely watch the algo work. Heart rate increases, occasional cold sweats and want to wet myself.

My hats are all off to all the regulars. If I point out anything like the above, it is because I have done it more than a few times, probably more than a handful of times, and in fact dozens of time on somethings. I have given up so many gains being greedy, second guessing, fatigue, hubris and just straight up dumbness.

At this point I am like some smart ass, no skin in the game, armchair after the fact pontificator!

That being said, I appreciate the community and will always try to add some value to the thread.

No need to set yourself on fire over my silly comment.

Your input is always appreciated, so carry on with your spamming.

 

[broomstick]

that’s bear market mark, possible but not this year, the big techs will have to crash by 50% to go there.

ahh I meant 5350-5400 LOL


yeah, 4400 would be a helluva drop!!!

 

[broomstick]

I think you may get your “V” in the afternoon today, but I’m still thinking we continue going down and hit the 4350-4400 zone, just not today.

It’s happening faster than I anticipated though. I think we’ll bounce up this afternoon and hangout a little bit the next couple of days before we get down to 4400 and below.

this was meant to be 5350-5400, not 4350-4400!
People must have thought I was nuts lol

not sure how I mistyped that so bad

still looking very weak here to me …

 

[Laissez Faire]

this was meant to be 5350-5400, not 4350-4400!
People must have thought I was nuts lol

not sure how I mistyped that so bad

still looking very weak here to me …

Nah. Still perma-bears waiting for ES to hit triple digits again.

 

[Laissez Faire]

There haven't been a September in 23 years which didn't retrace at least 40 % of the August range. The last 4 prior years were all red - taking out the prior month low - with an average change of - 5.72 %.

The September script is playing out nicely so far having already retraced 47 % of August's range closing down 4.25 % on the month today.

I can't pretend to have any idea where this is going, but wouldn't be shocked if we do take out the August lows by end of month.

 

[schizo]

[...]wouldn't be shocked if we do take out the August lows by end of month.

End of the month?? At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets taken out next week.

I don't believe this is just a minor correction like the ones in April and July. I think this could actually be the start of a full-fleged bear market. When this is all said and done, we could be looking at 50% correction. FYI, ES tanked 47% and 53% in 2000 and 2008 bear markets, respectively.