ES Journal - 2023/2024

Bad_Badness said:
I think we are in the rhythm of "react to news, then deal with the aftermath, then chill until last call, the last 30 minutes of the day". This is chill mode now.

How to trash your PL::D

Trade mode=Reaction mode while market is in chill mode.
Trade mode=chill mode while the market is in Reaction mode.

It is volatile enough right now there will be a lot of false signals in TA and PA.
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The market has spent a significant amount of time trying to carve out a top though prior to today. I'll be out and flat at end of day if we don't have a significant recovery.
 
Picaso said:
5-minute ATR went today over 13 points (outside of the news release).

1-minute ATR spent a lot of time between 5 and 8 points.

Really easy to get chopped to pieces if you have smallish stops (I do).

I was on break on 2021-2022, so I don't know, but maybe short-term volatility wasn't so high.

What I'm doing in this environment is 1) reducing size, 2) widening stops (but not proportional to volatility) and 3) pay the spread or even place limit orders a bit above the ask / below the bid to avoid negative selection.

And even then I'm getting stopped out a lot (but mostly at breakeven because I usually get a couple of points in my favor right away - because I'm entering on momentum).

Best trading to all.
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Why not proportional to volatility, out of interest?

I always trade the smallest size available on the NQ until I reach 1000% ROI and only then double size. When I have tried to scale into positions in the past I end up turning a winner into a loser or adding to positions that are losing etc.

I will just have to give up on higher time frames and accept the fact I need to sit in front of the computer and trade the lower time frames. Its a much better skill to develop anyway given that the market can spend a lot of time going sideways.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Likely more than it could. I can always get back in. I am moving the vast majority of my holdings to the sidelines.
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I think it could still drop down quite a bit more without having taken out any major levels or breaching the main uptrend lines.

We are only 20 SPX points away from the half way back retracement of the last big push up.
 
c1rcle said:
I think it could still drop down quite a bit more without having taken out any major levels or breaching the main uptrend lines.

We are only 20 SPX points away from the half way back retracement of the last big push up.
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Possible, but I have a rule that I set a long time ago and it was violated today and this week in general, so I'm out shortly. ----Except, I will hold my banking and bond holdings. ---I can always get back in long on ES and SP etc.
 
Monthly chart still looking good for SP/ES, but it doesn't react quickly enough for me so I pay most attention to the weekly chart for longer term bias. The fact that the monthly still looks decent is what has prevented me going short.
 
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