ES Journal - 2023/2024

[schizo]

SPX has the left shoulder another 20 points lower somehow.

I don't follow the spot, so I've no clue. But we are technically trading below the line I've drawn so you might be right.

 

[schizo]

What's going, man? I feel the roles have switched here with you being bullish and me being bearish.

There should be a PULLBACK before the next big leg down, that's all. Good example is post-NFP this morning. It popped up 40 points only to tumble 100 points.

 

[theapprentice]

tried risky L here

 

[christhesquid]

tried risky L here

Same. First trade on my Starlink connection.

Targeting 5440.

 

[theapprentice]

took small -3 stop
might try to get back in but looks weak and crap time of day for me

 

[Picaso]

First trade on my Starlink connection.

Stop bragging

Just kidding. Why are you on satellite, if I may ask?

 

[Picaso]

lol, combined positions here is not even a drop in the bucket, average es volume is 1.2 million per day.

I don't think he means people are watching his trades to piggy-back or fade them, but that making his position public distracts him from managing it or makes him want to prove he's right, etc.

 

[flash crash]

lol, combined positions here is not even a drop in the bucket, average es volume is 1.2 million per day.

The meaning of my post went about 32,000 nautical miles over your head.

 

[Picaso]

I'm just gonna consider the last 3 days as 1 candle (rather than 2 small and 1 large candles), so we're essentially down from 5654 in just 2 days. It would be easier for my sanity.How's that sound?

It sounds like cheating at Solitaire

I had a similar view to yours. I really didn't think we were going to drop more than 100 points today. Was it some Fed big shot giving a speech?

 

[Picaso]

I feel like unless I capture the exact point of any reversal, its impossible for me to get back into the trend without getting whipsawed out, and that goes for either direction these days.

If I try and go short now, I bet the market goes full V on me.

Total opposite for me, which doesn't make any sense at all. 2021/22 paid off my mortgage and then some, going both long and short. I need to figure out what stopped working since then.

5-minute ATR went today over 13 points (outside of the news release).

1-minute ATR spent a lot of time between 5 and 8 points.

Really easy to get chopped to pieces if you have smallish stops (I do).

I was on break on 2021-2022, so I don't know, but maybe short-term volatility wasn't so high.

What I'm doing in this environment is 1) reducing size, 2) widening stops (but not proportional to volatility) and 3) pay the spread or even place limit orders a bit above the ask / below the bid to avoid negative selection.

And even then I'm getting stopped out a lot (but mostly at breakeven because I usually get a couple of points in my favor right away - because I'm entering on momentum).

Best trading to all.