ES Journal - 2023/2024

schizo said:
I dunno, man. If we pierce above 50, then we're off to the races.
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Seems like a good place to pause and
1) there has been enough movement today, i.e. players played.
2) it is also a good place above 50 to drop a few more bombs.

@Nighthawk the EMA200 daily was the test. Now it is a matter of playing the rebound BEFORE the next test, if it even happens. Waiting-hoping-expecting for another test puts one out of sync with the market. or at best on the sidelines "waiting" for something that potentially has already happen and won't repeat.

I'll trade what I see not what I think should be and not looking for things that are "water under the bridge".
 
Volume on the spikes down is adding up. I think the strategy is re-configure the big bomb as smaller ones spaced apart (notice the time intervals), and hope the fear of a big bomb keeps the price favorable until the algo reaches completion.
A case where volume tells a story too.

Now it is done until the price is good to sell again. MOC orders will be interesting at 12:50

Seen this many times before.

All that being said, played it wrong and went long too early. Going for BE after a bad MAE. Edit: Out at 52 BE
 
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Orderflow
Cumulative Delta dropped by 5000 contracts above 50
(someone dumping after the lower level buys)
Technicals
EMA still upward bias with consolidation.

Market is just a derivative of the underlying (SP 500), so the bracket pricing is purely arbitrage of the moves in the underlying underlyings or weighted components that move the Spooz. So Ultimately one can manhandle the Spooz but pricing comes back to the underlying if no traction.

Recession or slowing of the economy puts pressure on high PE/Growth (weighted components). This is just a technical move, earnings or fundamental outlook looks poor.
 
Nighthawk said:
This is the behavior of SOCIOPATHS but not of rational acting money managers.
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Isn't it rational to buy what's going up?

I learned the hard way to trade what I saw, not what I thought or felt or considered or "knew".

2008: this has to go down more... Nope, up it went
2020: oh my goodness, this virus is gonna kill all growth for years, why are people buying?... Up it went

Why wait for the world to burn when you can make money without a bloodbath?

Just my 0.02
 
Picaso said:
Isn't it rational to buy what's going up?

I learned the hard way to trade what I saw, not what I thought or felt or considered or "knew".

2008: this has to go down more... Nope, up it went
2020: oh my goodness, this virus is gonna kill all growth for years, why are people buying?... Up it went

Why wait for the world to burn when you can make money without a bloodbath?

Just my 0.02
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Main thing is to always keep the timeframe trend filter as your hard stop. Don't go against it. 'Picking up Pennies under the Steamroller' .. just go with the momentum since momentum will shift, need to shift with it.
 
Relentless said:
How far out?

We are entering worst performing month of the year historically even if you are discounting all of the other distractions.

Just curious. I agree but I'm looking more towards EOY.
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I'm not one to make such predictions usually. I feel it might get there between this week and next week. The Fed economic symposium starts next Thursday I believe. Maybe rally hard into the Fed meeting and then we see the seasonal weakness you mention set in? I'm not trading it that way. I'm staying in the lane that has been working for me which is very short term day trades. I'll take 5 points even if the move lasts for 50 because there is always a pullback to let me get another 5 points. BTFD, even the small ones.
 
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