ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
If only it was 5 big boys! This is just beer money at this point. LOL.
May add 5 more micros, but waiting a bit.
Added 5 more here - bringing down my average and my stop to lock in a profit. I fear I may be getting too close to the market here. Should probably have waited for a rip to sell into, but have to get some breakfast now. Will be around and see if I re-enter should I get stopped out.
2000 pips correction in USDYEN resulted in 10% hit, to get to 125 means another 2000 pips, or another 10% correction in ES.
still trying to fight the good fight with another long attempt! swimming against the tide! may drown,....
it tends to work out for you when you add to your winners from what i've seen.
I don't tend to have that skill! when i do that, my add on tends to be where I should have taken profit!
If they get me again i'll be at about BE ish (a bit green) on the day and will stay flat until the open i think
My statistical model gives me information or clues based on historical analogues. The input is subject to my discretion, so that part still requires a bit of artistry. As such, it's not completely mechanical (my wish, but not sure it's possible).
And like I said yesterday, I'm cautious against leaning too heavily on statistics in an environment like this. I think markets are more predictable when they are moving normally and not in crash mode. Even if you can predict the big picture, it's still subject to gross overshoots in both direction.
Regardless, my model outputted a few trajectories for the day and the common denominator for ALL outcomes is a touch of yesterday's close in RTH and even good probabilities of taking out yesterday's LOD (but likely not by much and going slightly green by the close if so).
FWIW, it also suggests that today will NOT take out Friday's gap even if we rally. It also suggests we will NOT open gap higher and rally.
Something like this for RTH (just a rough visual).
And yes, I know it's a mess, but that's why I've been taking mostly shorts since I 'know' we should somehow touch 5220 at least in today's session and likely dip below it even if we go higher.
Just speculating.
PS: Just moved my stop back up a bit. Give it to 65/67.
And like I said yesterday, I'm cautious against leaning too heavily on statistics in an environment like this. I think markets are more predictable when they are moving normally and not in crash mode. Even if you can predict the big picture, it's still subject to gross overshoots in both direction.
Regardless, my model outputted a few trajectories for the day and the common denominator for ALL outcomes is a touch of yesterday's close in RTH and even good probabilities of taking out yesterday's LOD (but likely not by much and going slightly green by the close if so).
FWIW, it also suggests that today will NOT take out Friday's gap even if we rally. It also suggests we will NOT open gap higher and rally.
Something like this for RTH (just a rough visual).
And yes, I know it's a mess, but that's why I've been taking mostly shorts since I 'know' we should somehow touch 5220 at least in today's session and likely dip below it even if we go higher.
Just speculating.
PS: Just moved my stop back up a bit. Give it to 65/67.
Well, that last add was shit. Only reason it may work out now is because my original entry was so much higher. It worked terribly on Friday.
But yes, it have worked very well on a few occasions.
I find it works best when you have a very early entry and then add on subsequent signals in the same direction during a trending move. In a range bound market it doesn't seem to work well as your adds come just when the market is about to turn. Typically.
Idealized, something like this:
trying ss here
