ES Journal - 2023/2024

Direction is higher for now. Still think this fizzles out for a deeper pullback in the next few hours.

mervyn said:
i don’t recall why we had a bear market in 22 but this time is long overdue. no one runs the government until next year, the market will be directionless.

what’s the circuit breaker rule ? 10%?
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Soaring inflation and higher rates, I believe...?

Overnight limit is 7 %.
 
v-shape-0DTE said:
So many people this morning gave me shit, and we did green candle as expected.
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We were promised a crazy bullish first day of the month, too. It was literally in the bank. Market sold off 2 % instead.

It's not that long ago you said the market will never sell off again and there's been a lot of other outrageous claims, too.

v-shape-0DTE said:
Couldn't quite turn the corner, but made a decent attempt to recover. You bet I bought what I could the moment the thing opened. Who wouldn't? We are well on our way to making that weekly green candle I was talking about. There is nothing to worry about unless you are holding puts, which are about the get beat down. I can't wait till we fill the gap. Too many alarmist in here. I will repeat what I said, there is nothing unique or special about this move. There is almost a 100% chance the gap left from this morning will fill and very soon as I said. It's always a rough ride on days like today, but remember all that is happening is some algos are going wild. If you trade the price action, then don't waste your time with CNBC or any of that BS.

This market is into gapping, so it would not shock me if we saw a pretty big gap up tomorrow. We shall see. This market needs to at least temporary rally to screw all the greedy bears/ put holder who forgot what usually happens to puts in this market. Also the VIX needs to go back to a more normal range, and the market needs to stabilize. Then we an see where the next move lies after that.
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Everyone knows that a big rally will eventually come and this week may very well end green, but it's very difficult to monetize that knowledge even if turns out to be correct. We will also get back to all time highs and surpass them at some point, but we may drop 20 % first.

Successful directional trading with any amount of leverage requires precision. Entries and exits. Even during the bullish euphoria there were large enough sells to blow up an unskilled and overleveraged long-only trader. If you're just investing or trading with super low or zero leverage that's a different game.

What was your stop on the opening long? The market could very well have dropped 20-30 points before going higher.

I don't mean to offend you with this post or anything. Just stating the truth. Let's hope we get back to making those Vs soon. I prefer that environment myself.
 
Slow market, so okay. Shorted 65 with a 6 point stop. Baby size. Will leg in a bit more if it drops.

I'd like a drop to 5200 by tomorrow's RTH Open, but I suspect I may be too early.
 
v-shape-0DTE said:
You can read my posts from this morning. I am a swing trader. I don't live and die by every tick of the market. I'm not a scalper. I focus on targets. I also have other stuff going on in my life and I don't soley rely on trading to survive like some here. I already said I was wrong on Friday.

Everyone told me I was so naive about this "scary" drop this morning. I said BTFD. If you didn't buy any long trade, calls, shares whatever, then that is on you. They will 100% destroy everyones puts first, even if this eventually continues lower. That is to be determined. First we get a pump, then we see what will happen next.
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Kudos to your youthful optimism. We will likely open gap up tomorrow, but I think the scenario for the day will be more like this...

upload_2024-8-5_15-59-58.png
 
Shorted 64. 6 point stop.

If it blows past this area we might just squeeze to 5300 straight way.

I have some confidence in a deeper pullback before the RTH Open, but hard to know how high it goes first.
 
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