ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Spectre2007]

To be honest though, I don't understand your entry based on your explanation. In your circle, price is now way above the regression line, so its almost negating that line at that point, no? The downslopping blue trendline is really juicy, but at this point, your blue EMA is almost above the red one.

Now if I look at the yellow circle that I drew, now I can see how this regression line "reverses to confirm" because it tests from below (if this is what you mean by reverse to confirm), and the blue trendline is once again in play. Of course you never know if this opportunity comes up to give you this nice combination of upper trendline test and lower trendline regression from the opposite side, if I understand you correctly, but at least in this yellow area, the short seems to be looking better.

View attachment 344608

over the years you learn that trendline/regressions are just dispersions around a vector. Meaning a slight break is not that indicative of bias, repetitive breaks is more indicative. So the lines are a rough guestimate of the vector (direction) for the price. Its a summation of all the indications that creates the internal bias of direction which is the directional bias your entries should be. Meaning at any given time, you only trade with one bias, either looking only for longs or either looking only for shorts, unless your internal bias does a 180.

in the above picture notice the red line breaks but doesn't truly hold over time and the vector is down.

 

[NoahA]

over the years you learn that trendline/regressions are just dispersions around a vector. Meaning a slight break is not that indicative of bias, repetitive breaks is more indicative. So the lines are a rough guestimate of the vector (direction) for the price. Its a summation of all the indications that creates the internal bias of direction which is the directional bias your entries should be. Meaning at any given time, your only trade with one bias, either looking only for longs or either looking only for shorts, unless your internal bias does a 180.

So let me see if I have this right. Your internal bias after 10am was already set up as a short, so you're looking for areas for a short to set up. The downslopping trendline is a good area, but how is that regression line helping? Its up slopping. Or is it that you expect price to drop below this, and then test from below? The fact that price is now moving above the regression line, does this mean you're expecting the rally to stop because it shouldn't move too far away from this regression line if the short thesis is in play? I'm just trying to understand the point of this regression line since its up-slopping.

Also, since you're suggesting to take a short at maybe 5596, but the high of day was now 5604, do you have a fairly large stop in play? Or do you just cut the trade it it have a higher high after your entry?

 

[Spectre2007]

So let me see if I have this right. Your internal bias after 10am was already set up as a short, so you're looking for areas for a short to set up. The downslopping trendline is a good area, but how is that regression line helping? Its up slopping. Or is it that you expect price to drop below this, and then test from below? The fact that price is now moving above the regression line, does this mean you're expecting the rally to stop because it shouldn't move too far away from this regression line if the short thesis is in play? I'm just trying to understand the point of this regression line since its up-slopping.

Also, since you're suggesting to take a short at maybe 5596, but the high of day was now 5604, do you have a fairly large stop in play? Or do you just cut the trade it it have a higher high after your entry?

https://www.trade2win.com/threads/e-mini-sp-500.26559/

yeah was short when the upward regression line (red) breaks and the break holds the blue line (vector) for the short reaffirms. I only use mental stops or catastrophic stops. My entries don't have to be precise since I'm underleveraged on most trades. If I use exceptionally large leverage entries have to be precise and I have to watch the screens like a hawk.

 

[Spectre2007]

Getting back to tonights sessions.. that red line is the pivot.. meaning price will test that red line in the coming Euro/NY sessions. Its whether it stays above or below to indicate bias.

 

[themickey]

my win rate is 90%,

there is also the 'feeler' trade, meaning you just have 1 unit on to see what the price is indicating. The feeler is another internal reinforcement of your modeling. So further unit entries are in alignment of the bias of the feeler.

Not debating a 90% win rate, but with that why then have feeler trades?
Do the feeler trades have an effect on win rate, if so how so?
I'm assuming 'feeler trades' are small initial positions which are getting you in tentatively until you get further confirmations.
Are you getting 90% win rates on feeler trades too?

 

[Spectre2007]

Not debating a 90% win rate, but with that why then have feeler trades?
Do the feeler trades have an effect on win rate, if so how so?
I'm assuming 'feeler trades' are small initial positions which are getting you in tentatively until you get further confirmations.
Are you getting 90% win rates on feeler trades too?

yeah, I'm rarely wrong on the feeler, its just used to confirm. The implications of this, I don't initiate a trade unless probability or internal feel aligns.

Not sure if you know the 'Remote Viewing' concept. There are some youtube videos on it. My internal feel is like getting a 'line' into the market. I know what price will do before it does it.

 

[themickey]

With 90% why the need of feeler?
Now I'll just mention this, USA brokerage fees are way lower than ASX which is my exchange.
Also I'm trading stocks, but too many feeler trades for me would push fees through the roof.
A round trip on a $10k position costs $60 or $30 per shot.

 

[Spectre2007]

the intensity of the bias has variability. So the feeler is minimal leverage. Just because my win rate is high I don't let it play a role in how I trade. I'm still conservative.

 

[Spectre2007]

Getting back to tonights sessions.. that red line is the pivot.. meaning price will test that red line in the coming Euro/NY sessions. Its whether it stays above or below to indicate bias. View attachment 344612

 

[Spectre2007]

notice I indicated that price would try to head to the pivot. (red line)