A few guys in this thread, as you've probably seen if you're all caught up, are doing quite well by simply waiting for pullbacks and going long. It has been working incredibly well for practically over a year given this relentless rally. @Laissez Faire is doing great by leaning on his statistical model, and @theapprentice has also been killing it. Obviously when the market turns more two sided things will get more challenging, but certainly what stands out from seeing their trades is that they aren't focusing too much on the small time frame and are generally holding for hours. Perhaps this is an edge in itself because to be accurate for the next 30 seconds seems incredibly difficult vs. being right over the next few hours. What do you think?
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
thats correct, the longer the timeframe the less noise. The shorter the timeframe more noise, unless its a news event spiking vol. Sometimes patience itself will drive you away from sitting infront of the screens and you just let runners fly. The shorter the timeframe the more leverage is used. The longer the timeframe the less leverage needed. The edge is trading the timeframe with the least amount of noise.
the definition of noise is - non correlated price movements to time /space/ derivatives/ sector/ themes/vectors/support /resistance ..
if you can decipher the trend in the timeframe being traded, that's 90% of the solution. The other 10% is holding on as long as possible. (let winners persist, losers fade).
The tricky part is that once the trend is clear, its usually the worst time to enter because then it stops, except during those times where the trend is relentless, and that is typically the exception and not the norm.
Take Friday for example. The first hour, green circle, is just sideways chop. (the short at 5600 should of course always be considered as a reversal from a key level)
By the time it gets to the blue circle, you can think its a downtrend, but it bounces at the overnight low, blue line, which is also the previous day low, so a very key level, and it does make a good attempt at reversing.
Ok.. so then it drops lower into the red circle, so you think the downtrend is still in play, but the size of that reversal is huge!
And by the time is makes a lower low into the yellow circle, its too late to short! LOL....
Now I'm not saying this is how I think or trade, but just expressing that waiting for something to be clear with confirmation isn't the best time to get on board the trade.
prior to the open the tick high and low are known, it creates S/R levels. After the open it failed to break through resistance after reversion up. Than proceeded to take out tick support. Than reverted back up to regression. So by 10:30 its indicating what its intent is by affirming the break and failure to break through resistance. Than for the rest of the day it adheres to the break of support with reversions up to regressions and minor breaks of it.
ES like to travel 'coast to coast' from larger support to resistance in larger timeframes.
ES like to travel 'coast to coast' from larger support to resistance in larger timeframes.
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take a look at one of the filters I use.
Excellent written analysis, but I don't understand your filters. I see these are just moving averages, but they are incredibly close together so I'm not sure how you are using them.
Also, based on your written analysis, where would your trades be?
little bit after 10am .. the market failed to take out the 'tick high' .. And kept adhering to the downward regression with support breaks.
the moving average when the blue is below the red, its bearish (shorter time interval below longer time interval) of inputs. And if the blue is above the red, it indicates upward bias.
