Just close shop and go home.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Congrats on the good day!NQ killed the rally, so didn't get as much as I hoped for, but still a decent day.
Exceeded my expectations by a good margin as my initial target was merely a move back to 5665. When it started ripping above 5665 and NQ held on the mid-range pullback, I decided to just HODL for ATHs.
But I don't think NQ is to blame in this case. Both topped out at the same time, roughly 13:50, but it was ES that hit the critical level, the previous day high. It was a perfect double top in fact, with just a 1 tick poke. NQ in my opinion wasn't anywhere special. So if anything, I think the NQ bulls should be blaming ES because it was ES, after hitting this critical level, that started running out of buyers.
NQ killed the rally, so didn't get as much as I hoped for, but still a decent day.
Congrats on your long
Good eye.
NQ tends to outperform. Yesterday, ES reversed the entire prior day range making all time highs while NQ printed an Inside Day stuck inside yesterday's range.
When NQ finally took out current highs at 13:33 it happened 12 minutes after ES broke above current highs (13:11) and with ES already at ATHs - clearly struggling to participate.
I may be wrong, but that's how I interpret it.
ES + 0,86 % on the week with a green weekly candle.
NQ - 0,39 % on the week with a red candle.
When NQ finally took out current highs at 13:33 it happened 12 minutes after ES broke above current highs (13:11) and with ES already at ATHs - clearly struggling to participate.
I may be wrong, but that's how I interpret it.
ES + 0,86 % on the week with a green weekly candle.
NQ - 0,39 % on the week with a red candle.
Yes, I do understand that the expectation was for NQ to keep rising since ES already retraced the entire down move. But I honestly haven't seen enough evidence of which leads. Someone here said before that ES leads, but I just don't see that when I look at random examples. (in this case tough, ES was leading because after it hit a key level, both markets dropped)
That's an interesting way of looking at it, and I see what you mean. NQ was lagging in this case, no doubt about it. But then it always comes down to the question of who is right. Is the lagging market correct that buying is weak and hence everything will drop, or is the lagging market wrong and hence ready for an explosion so it will catch up?
So since I can't ever figure out who is right, because they tend to take turns on which leads and which lags, what I really focus on is where the turn happens. Half of the time, I have no idea why the ES turned where it did, until I look at the NQ, and this works the other way as well. Of course levels are broken all the time, but if one market hits a key level, that can certainly pull both markets down, and this doesn't even matter which one is stronger or weaker.
Randomly looking at the charts, I notice this area yesterday afternoon. In the bottom chart, ES hits 5650, a fairly significant level, and NQ also turns here, at just a random level. Then further along, when ES pokes the previous day low, the dark green line, NQ also bounces here at 13:05. NQ does make lower lows after 14:00, but since ES refuses to go any lower, NQ can't help but be dragged up. But of course, ES could have just as easily eventually broken below the PDL, so its not like there is any magic in what I'm looking, but just simply pointing out that either market hitting a key level can immediately turn both markets.
I would not short this thing Sunday night. It might trend down, but odds are it will be flat at the open Monday AM.
And before this stuff happened... I was gonna tell you guys to sell the rip if any at the open.
But this changes everything. Trend will still be down, but Sunday night will gobble up retail in chop.
If I'm wrong, oh well... but I'd sit on my hands tomorrow night at a minimum.
Other than that lol, I was waiting for a spike up at the open to tell you guys to go short.
And before this stuff happened... I was gonna tell you guys to sell the rip if any at the open.
But this changes everything. Trend will still be down, but Sunday night will gobble up retail in chop.
If I'm wrong, oh well... but I'd sit on my hands tomorrow night at a minimum.
Other than that lol, I was waiting for a spike up at the open to tell you guys to go short.
I would think it wise to not take ANY position after the "assassination attempt" on Trump.
The only sure thing is that the VIX futures (VX) will spike north at 6PM ET Sunday night. Yes sir.
That's kinda what I just said. fwiw
Regarding tomorrow night at least.
You were talking the ES...I am talking the VX. Two different animals.
We are on the same page of two different books? Hehe?