ES Journal - 2023/2024

[theapprentice]

Nobody 'kills' anyone. Any trader who takes a (big) loss does that to himself. But that may be just semantics.

Regardless, bulls are fat on profit after this monster run, so they still have the upper hand, IMO.

exactly.
Unless the bulls we are talking about are people who literally only finally got long yesterday, and were overleveraged, then the bulls will be laughing for quite some time. That drop was literally NOTHING so far. Even if the same thing happens today and monday and tuesday! It's gonna take a serious move down to wipe the smile off of the bulls faces who have been enjoying this rally for the last 6 months! lol (whether they are still holding from WAY way lower, or whether they've just been building a bank from daily gains from daytrading long only)

 

[Laissez Faire]

Should be interesting to see how today plays out. I like to check my statistics to get an idea of what seems most likely, but it most certainly ain't right all the time. What's to stop the market from rallying back to the highs today?

Anything can happen in this market. But from what my statistics showed, it does not seem likely.

Seems like it's NQ/NDX that's putting a drag on the market. It's been showing some cracks earlier this week prior to yesterday.

Maybe the market sold off enough yesterday to warrant a rally on today's number. We're certainly in a better position for that than yesterday.

 

[Picaso]

In April we had like a 6% correction (April down 4%) in ES, a bit larger in NQ.

We are seeing lately some sharp corrections (20%-ish) in some leading tech stocks, but hey, after going parabolic for months.

Up to a 5% correction, for me this continues to be a long-only environment, meaning, not that I'm going to be long all the time, but that I'd rather sit on my hands when in a "normal" market I would short, and keep my powder dry to buy dips when it gets bouncy.

But of course, I don't scalp or flip like others, so to each its own.

Best trading to everyone.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I went long one micro contract here at 41 to satisfy my gambling urges. 15 point stop.

 

[Laissez Faire]

If I get lucky, I might keep the initial position and add to it post-PPI.

It's a gamble, though, but one that won't cost too much even with 50 point slippage.

 

[Laissez Faire]

...but that I'd rather sit on my hands when in a "normal" market I would short, and keep my powder dry to buy dips when it gets bouncy.

I think that's very wise. I'm not good at sitting on my hands and that still causes me to get into trouble at times. Since I tend to scale into positions the damage is limited, but can still get into trouble on the days where I simply get it wrong.

I've seen some day traders who say there are days they don't trade and I think that's both wise and admirable.

Maybe I can solve it by trading super small like one micro.

 

[Picaso]

I went long one micro contract here at 41 to satisfy my gambling urges. 15 point stop.

I can relate

I think that's very wise. I'm not good at sitting on my hands and that still causes me to get into trouble at times...

I've seen some day traders who say there are days they don't trade and I think that's both wise and admirable.

While I don't think I'm either wise or admirable, my profitability greatly increased (and my drawdowns decreased) when I forced myself to 1) trade less (way less) and 2) hold winning positions for longer (even accounting for getting stopped out more).

There's a movie called "Searching for Bobby Fischer", based on the life of Josh Waitzkin, a child chess prodigy, who later became a martial artist. As an adult he created a chess course and continuously insisted: "Don't move until you see it". Best trading advice ever, imho.

(For what is worth, I still have the opposite problem: I still hesitate too much to open new positions and want too much confirmation, so I leave a lot of money on the table, but then again, it's not hard to be profitable when you have very small losses and large winners).

 

[Laissez Faire]

Thank goodness it was only 1 micro. Number came out hot? Instant spike which reversed?

I longed again at 37.50.

 

[Picaso]

Thank goodness it was only 1 micro. Number came out hot? Instant spike which reversed?

I longed again at 37.50.

In my view it's just the lack of liquidity around the announcement.

Yesterday we had one 0,1% lower inflation, today we have 0,1% higher inflation... So basically we should stay the same, but index, bonds and currencies all over the place for a bit.

 

[flash crash]

to satisfy my gambling urges

When I want to gamble, I trade NQ.


Profitable, but pure panic and terror - mine, not the market's.

When will I learn? These momentary lapses in discipline have been the death of my accounts in the past and it is only a matter of time before I screw this up if I keep this up.

I know that I should only be trading the ES, and that 97% of my trades should take place after the stock exchanges open.

But those quick ticks looks so tasty.

Like yesterday, I'm putting myself in a trading time out until after 9:30 AM.

And I am closing the NQ chart.