see if we can get anything out of this
still holding the NQ's longs too of course!
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
still holding the NQ's longs too of course!
ES is getting extremely old and weak;
for the last 2 days, it could hardly move 0.3%.
MOVE! You lazy bugger!
France's CAC40 - still young and energetic;
for the last 2 days, it could easily move 1.5%.
GOOD JOB!
Last edited:
closing ES here for +10. Sure we ramp hard soon but already long so taking the gamble taht we might get a dip for me to get back in a few points lower
Also closed one of my NQ's for +275 points.
Still holding one with room to start re-adding agian (if it ramps another 500 points this week without a dip, i'm at least still long one position to benefit a little)
Also closed one of my NQ's for +275 points.
Still holding one with room to start re-adding agian (if it ramps another 500 points this week without a dip, i'm at least still long one position to benefit a little)
What's the high probability setup?
Unless you have some secret sauce or pattern, the way I see it, you're still trying to pick a top. And that's an exercise that haven't worked out well for people during this rally.
Wouldn't it be better to rather stay flat and load up on calls after a drop if/when it happens...?
Personally, I'm almost exclusively trading the long side buying dips for now and I'm probably not taking any shorts until I see a new development. I'd rather see the short, observe it and trade the pullback on the long side.
I'm not even a perma-bull. Had a week during the prior correction where I had around 90 % short trades. The trend down was very clear then, but ended sooner than I had anticipated.
Exactly.
Do more of what works. Do less of what doesn't work (as a general statement, not addressed to anyone in particular).
I'm sure @v-shape-0DTE have been plenty long, so he's probably not who you're thinking of.
But I've seen people short this market since last fall and they still use the same stupid rationalizations, i.e., "This market HAS to retrace here. It's overdone."
I mean, clearly, this approach isn't working. When I see those people get relentlessly bullish, maybe it's time to start being cautious.
I haven't yet studied corrections in great detail, but it seems like market tops usually have a larger day down near the top. We haven't seen that yet. I'd like to see that before I even consider a market top. Sure, I'll miss the very top, but I don't risk blowing up trying to pick it prematurely.
Also, it's July and that's usually a green month, so I'm thinking the downside should be limited pending any news or comments that changes the narrative.
Also, it's July and that's usually a green month, so I'm thinking the downside should be limited pending any news or comments that changes the narrative.
Yes, a blow-off top.
I remember vividly that last daily green bar for oil at 147 in July 2008 - when I gave up shorting it - before it went down all the way to 32 in December...
Waiting for the same now in USDJPY
Pumping here pre-market.
I count 35 days making all time highs so far this year. Today looks to be the 36th.
That number may be slightly off as it's futures data and not SPX, but shouldn't be too far off.
I'm more of a trend follower lately going with the seasonal bias, i.e., buying dips and expecting sell-offs to fail. It works until it no longer works. Yesterday was a losing day as the market didn't go anywhere and I took on too much leverage, but today is shaping up pretty good.
I vividly remember when I was new on this board and there was a guy or two who was absolutely crushing it going long only while there were quite a few people (me included as a newbie) who were mostly shorting and fighting the market.
I count 35 days making all time highs so far this year. Today looks to be the 36th.
That number may be slightly off as it's futures data and not SPX, but shouldn't be too far off.
I'm more of a trend follower lately going with the seasonal bias, i.e., buying dips and expecting sell-offs to fail. It works until it no longer works. Yesterday was a losing day as the market didn't go anywhere and I took on too much leverage, but today is shaping up pretty good.
I vividly remember when I was new on this board and there was a guy or two who was absolutely crushing it going long only while there were quite a few people (me included as a newbie) who were mostly shorting and fighting the market.
ES feels like a very news reliant instrument these days. If there is news to spark some trading, then it trades. If there is no news catalyst, it sits.