ES Journal - 2023/2024

Laissez Faire said:
So, what's up Picaso? You haven't posted in a while. Are you back to day trading ES and maybe other instruments, too? I seem to recall you trading CL actively back in the day. Have you looked into that recently?

Back in the day CL seemed to be the favored day trading instrument among the ET crowd, but not hearing so much about it these days. Of course, the US indices have become much more favorable to trade since then as well, so I haven't felt a need to explore any other venues myself.

But maybe it could be worthwhile to have another asset class in the portfolio.
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Yes, I'm back into trading (again be advised I'm a contrarian indicator :D).

I used to trade mostly ES, CL and ZB - net profitable but if you factor in the cost of opportunity in terms of both time and risk-free returns in other investments, a pyrrhic victory.

Now I'm back, better capitalized, and trying to combine short-term and swing futures with longer holding periods for stocks. I'm still slowly dipping my feet in the water (I look at the chart and it says up, but then my view/experience/prejudice of the economy screams "bubble").

I'm looking at ES for day trading, CL for swing trading and ZB, 6J (JPYUSD - looking for a place to get long soon), UC (USD/CNH, same same), A50 (China, looking for a long, maybe later in the year or in 2025) for longer term (months, quarters, perhaps a couple of years).

Also, I'm watching a bunch of stocks (mostly tech), frozen like a deer in the headlights waiting for a pullback that is large enough to present an opportunity (but not so large as to signal a change in trend). Ideally for years, or at least months, so I don't have to spend even more time in front of a screen.

I will leave cocoa shorts to big-balls Schizo :p

So basically sitting on my hands, beating myself up for missing yet another bull run :D (but in good health, financially safe and happy with life, so whatever).

Oh, and congrats for becoming an independent professional trader, you oughta be proud :)

Best trading to all
 
Picaso said:
Yes, I'm back into trading (again be advised I'm a contrarian indicator :D).

I used to trade mostly ES, CL and ZB - net profitable but if you factor in the cost of opportunity in terms of both time and risk-free returns in other investments, a pyrrhic victory.

Now I'm back, better capitalized, and trying to combine short-term and swing futures with longer holding periods for stocks. I'm still slowly dipping my feet in the water (I look at the chart and it says up, but then my view/experience/prejudice of the economy screams "bubble").

I'm looking at ES for day trading, CL for swing trading and ZB, 6J (JPYUSD - looking for a place to get long soon), UC (USD/CNH, same same), A50 (China, looking for a long, maybe later in the year or in 2025) for longer term (months, quarters, perhaps a couple of years).

Also, I'm watching a bunch of stocks (mostly tech), frozen like a deer in the headlights waiting for a pullback that is large enough to present an opportunity (but not so large as to signal a change in trend). Ideally for years, or at least months, so I don't have to spend even more time in front of a screen.

I will leave cocoa shorts to big-balls Schizo :p

So basically sitting on my hands, beating myself up for missing yet another bull run :D (but in good health, financially safe and happy with life, so whatever).

Oh, and congrats for becoming an independent professional trader, you oughta be proud :)

Best trading to all
More...

Sounds good. Diversifying a bit is probably not a bad idea.

I think what you mention about opportunity cost is very key since active day trading doesn't really make sense if you're not doing considerably better than simply being invested.

My attitude is that I'll ride the bubble higher if it is a bubble and I'll ride it lower if it pops. As a day trader I don't carry any overnight risk anyway, so it's all about being on the right side of the market/order flow from my point of view. Too many people are expecting the market to break down and it's not helping them one bit as traders.

I would probably be proud if I were an independent (professional?) trader, but this is still just a hobby on my end, although one I spend a lot of time on and take fairly seriously. :)
 
Picaso said:
I will leave cocoa shorts to big-balls Schizo :p
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Man, spare me the ordeal.

upload_2024-2-4_15-36-17.png
 
schizo said:
Man, spare me the ordeal.

View attachment 333320
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Sorry, Schizo, I thought it had finally started going down (it wasn't a jab at you).

Laissez Faire said:
Diversifying a bit is probably not a bad idea.
More...

I have mixed feelings on this one. Diversifying actually increases the likelihood of losing (some) money and makes it harder to hit home runs. But of course, on the other side, when properly done, it exponentially decreases the risk of ruin. We'll see, as you say, I just want to diversify "a bit" (stocks aside).

Laissez Faire said:
My attitude is that I'll ride the bubble higher if it is a bubble and I'll ride it lower if it pops.
More...

That's the spirit. :)

Laissez Faire said:
I would probably be proud if I were an independent (professional?) trader, but this is still just a hobby on my end, although one I spend a lot of time on and take fairly seriously.
More...

I think you're being too humble, good for you. But how many people who have been here as long as you haven't blown up or become sour? Plus, hobbies cost money, here you're making some. OK, let's say professional-adjacent :D Then just hang in there a bit till your account is a bit bigger then semi-retire, then retire and live la vida loca.

Best trading to everyone.
 
Picaso said:
Yes, I'm back into trading (again be advised I'm a contrarian indicator :D).

I used to trade mostly ES, CL and ZB - net profitable but if you factor in the cost of opportunity in terms of both time and risk-free returns in other investments, a pyrrhic victory.

Now I'm back, better capitalized, and trying to combine short-term and swing futures with longer holding periods for stocks. I'm still slowly dipping my feet in the water (I look at the chart and it says up, but then my view/experience/prejudice of the economy screams "bubble").

I'm looking at ES for day trading, CL for swing trading and ZB, 6J (JPYUSD - looking for a place to get long soon), UC (USD/CNH, same same), A50 (China, looking for a long, maybe later in the year or in 2025) for longer term (months, quarters, perhaps a couple of years).

Also, I'm watching a bunch of stocks (mostly tech), frozen like a deer in the headlights waiting for a pullback that is large enough to present an opportunity (but not so large as to signal a change in trend). Ideally for years, or at least months, so I don't have to spend even more time in front of a screen.

I will leave cocoa shorts to big-balls Schizo :p

So basically sitting on my hands, beating myself up for missing yet another bull run :D (but in good health, financially safe and happy with life, so whatever).

Oh, and congrats for becoming an independent professional trader, you oughta be proud :)

Best trading to all
More...
I suggest you change your Avatar to this instead:

upload_2024-2-6_8-51-37.png


if you want to be a profitable day trader. :p
 
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