Why not?
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Why not?
My minds like a computer .Over the decades I’ve seen 100’s of thousands of patterns. My mind computes these patterns and mixes in news and sentiment to tell me when to make trades . Some people say I’m an highly functioning autistic person . I have little emotion when trading and no fear . Think about when you trade with a sim . I bet you make money 90% of the time because you know what’s going to happen and you have no fear . Your not trading real money so your relaxed and let things work . I share that no fear on real trades because I trust my trading with no emotion.
carry trades the targets can be set for sure, long or short. folks posted intra-day here are tif day, these two days are a good example of low confident trades.
What are you, a psychopath?
Hi Laissez Faire.
Good data = we go up, because data is good, ok
Bad data = we go up, because the FED will lower rates, aha...
Great data = we faint down, because now the FED will not lower rates for a while (which will entail a recession later in the year, according to Schizo and others), but then shoot back up because, well the data is great!
It all seems overbought to me, but (I think) I see your point: JBTFD
Best trading to everyone
Hi Laissez Faire.
Good data = we go up, because data is good, ok
Bad data = we go up, because the FED will lower rates, aha...
Great data = we faint down, because now the FED will not lower rates for a while (which will entail a recession later in the year, according to Schizo and others), but then shoot back up because, well the data is great!
It all seems overbought to me, but (I think) I see your point: JBTFD
Best trading to everyone
It is overbought - but it can stay overbought for some time. If you look back though over time you'll see these steep multi day / week / month moves up are almost always met with strong reversion. Has happened specifically into the month of February on many occasions.
I wouldn't short it but im sure as hell not getting long here for anything other than a daytrade.
Hi Laissez Faire.
Good data = we go up, because data is good, ok
Bad data = we go up, because the FED will lower rates, aha...
Great data = we faint down, because now the FED will not lower rates for a while (which will entail a recession later in the year, according to Schizo and others), but then shoot back up because, well the data is great!
It all seems overbought to me, but (I think) I see your point: JBTFD
Best trading to everyone
Good morning, Picaso,
I'll leave the interpretation of those numbers and any other number to the large players that actually move the market. My opinion of that number is worthless in the great trading game.
When I first started trading I was a bit of a bear and I carried a ton of political and economical views and baggage with me and I listened to the news a lot, i.e., "That's bad news - the market should go down."
Obviously, that turned out to be very, very expensive and led to very poor trading. These days, I have zero interest in the news as it relates to trading, beyond being aware of the timing of scheduled news releases in order to most often stay out of the market during such periods.
Personally, I have a sense that the markets in a way are predestined to trade or hit a certain level for any given day. I can't quite explain why. Maybe institutions have larger orders planned for a given day for reasons we can't understand such that news won't influence it unless it's something severe. Could be passive index funds buying their monthly nut. Or the Norwegian Sovereign Fund showering the market with money with no regard for daily news or noise since they're investing for a 50 year horizon.
Anyway, for yesterday, I was already quite bullish by the end of Thursday. When we opened around 30, I "knew", that if 30 would hold on the Open and we didn't fall below that, 4950 was pretty much guaranteed and I had 60 as my target for the day.
ES 5000 was my outlier target for the day, but it seemed a bit crazy at the time, but that's what you have to keep in mind as your target if the market keeps going higher.
I had some stuff to attend to yesterday, so I closed down my platform early after a profitable long to 44, but was following the market with half an eye on TradingView to see how things played out and if my prediction would be correct. I realized it was shaping up to be a trend day and that we would indeed come close to the 5K number.
So, I logged back on and went long on a PB and the market did indeed continue to trade like a trend day moving through levels life a knife in hot butter which is a characteristic of trend days. I put in a limit sell at 95,75 and trailed 10 points in my favor which looked like a safe spot at the time for a trend day up and went to the gym. Sadly, I was stopped out on that rapid PB which may have been news related (US). Would have been my first biggie this year if not.
Regardless, yesterday's move higher was nothing special to me. High reading for the week = + 1,64 %. + 1,38 % on the day and closing at + 1,01 %. That's hardly very dramatic.
Since ES is bound to hit 5200-5300 this year, it's easy to be long.
Wisely spoke, Laissez Faire, thank you for the implied advice.
Nice reentry, by the way.
On a strong up day, the market rarely dips below the 50 % level, so in hindsight maybe I should have put my stop closer to entry. But, as a rule, I try to not let a (big) winner go all the way back to zero and at least take something off the table. Happened one time too many.
So, what's up Picaso? You haven't posted in a while. Are you back to day trading ES and maybe other instruments, too? I seem to recall you trading CL actively back in the day. Have you looked into that recently?
Back in the day CL seemed to be the favored day trading instrument among the ET crowd, but not hearing so much about it these days. Of course, the US indices have become much more favorable to trade since then as well, so I haven't felt a need to explore any other venues myself.
But maybe it could be worthwhile to have another asset class in the portfolio.
cl is a stable trade, particularly for writing puts. i have at least 3 trades per week, expiring mon/wed/fri, support and resistance are easy to spot. then there is the buy the dip mode for a buck or two bounce.
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