ES Journal - 2023/2024

[theapprentice]

went flat nq earlier.

I expect we're gonna rally another 150 or so ES points from here easy without much of a pullback but good time of year to go flatish for me, personally

If we happen to get a decent dip though, i'm a buyer

 

[p0box4]

gonna close the YM at 38k - probably tonight

View attachment 330031

You never seem to post any losing day's. Are you hiding them or are you a very, very, very rich man by now since you are never losing.

 

[Concinnity]

Any timeframe for this call?

It isn't a call really, it's just how the markets work and the highest probability. I am flat pretty much everyday and come in the next day and intra-day trade it. With that said I'd have to imagine we get there sooner than later, like 2-4 weeks max.

#1 It's based on the NQ Daily pattern break (if you look back starting 07/20/2023 you'll see all the bigger moves down(We had 3 separate down moves) we had a warning close, a move back up, than a deeper closer). We never got it this time all we got was the warning close on 12/04/2023 and 12/06/2023. It's easier to see this pattern if you have some sort of trailing support levels, but it's still there regardless.

#2 If you look at the NQ weekly we took out two topping tail / shoulder highs to the left and since 11/24/2023 we've been candle closing above those previous highs.

#3 As stated we have not taken out continuous contract all time highs on NQ. I don't care what anyone else says, this is something I personally use.

Does this mean we're 100% going to the levels I gave? of course not nothing is 100% it just means that's the probability direction to trade and until something changes I'll keep trading probability.

 

[Concinnity]

You never seem to post any losing day's. Are you hiding them or are you a very, very, very rich man by now since you are never losing.

He had a losing day he posted. All he is doing is using the macro read(there's so many edges, confluences and things saying buyers we're going to keep coming in too many to even list) to go long and accepting if it doesn't work some days. Which as stated one day it didn't work for him, but the other days far make up for it.

It's nothing more than an account size edge, but I give it more respect since he's also trading in the direction of probability and understands apparently the unique setup we we're in / possible still in.

This is what I was saying earlier, don't get fooled by people (not saying he is trying to fool anyone) just saying in general people are very disingenuous on how they actually make money trading. They want you to think they really understand trading at a deep level. The truth is like I say ad nauseam now majority of people, including money managers, hedge funds, family offices and etc are just using account size, time and the natural bullish bias of major US equities to turn a profit. It doesn't even necessarily take any skill and it's the default way to make money for nearly everyone.

That's it, that sums up what they are doing almost perfectly. Sure there are some exceptions, but it's very rare.

 

[p0box4]

It isn't a call really, it's just how the markets work and the highest probability. I am flat pretty much everyday and come in the next day and intra-day trade it. With that said I'd have to imagine we get there sooner than later, like 2-4 weeks max.

#1 It's based on the NQ Daily pattern break (if you look back starting 07/20/2023 you'll see all the bigger moves down(We had 3 separate down moves) we had a warning close, a move back up, than a deeper closer). We never got it this time all we got was the warning close on 12/04/2023 and 12/06/2023. It's easier to see this pattern if you have some sort of trailing support levels, but it's still there regardless.

#2 If you look at the NQ weekly we took out two topping tail / shoulder highs to the left and since 11/24/2023 we've been candle closing above those previous highs.

#3 As stated we have not taken out continuous contract all time highs on NQ. I don't care what anyone else says, this is something I personally use.

Does this mean we're 100% going to the levels I gave? of course not nothing is 100% it just means that's the probability direction to trade and until something changes I'll keep trading probability.

Can you post a chart of your continuous chart? Mine at Tradingview seems to show the previous high as being broken. Guess i am doing something wrong.

 

[Concinnity]

Can you post a chart of your continuous chart? Mine at Tradingview seems to show the previous high as being broken. Guess i am doing something wrong.

I don't think you're doing it wrong, everyone is saying ATH has been broken, so I guess officially it has. I just can't concern myself with what other people do or think anymore, it is such a waste of time and half the time they either don't know what they are talking about or being disingenuous. I just trade what I know has the highest probability to work and use risk management.

 

[Concinnity]

Can you post a chart of your continuous chart? Mine at Tradingview seems to show the previous high as being broken. Guess i am doing something wrong.

I sent you a chart with basic analysis.

 

[p0box4]

I don't think you're doing it wrong, everyone is saying ATH has been broken, so I guess officially it has. I just can't concern myself with what other people do or think anymore, it is such a waste of time and half the time they either don't know what they are talking about or being disingenuous. I just trade what I know has the highest probability to work and use risk management.

Well, either it has been broker or it has not.

My continuous chart for NQ at Tradingview showed the previous all time high at november 22th in 2021 at 16767,5, which was broken on december 13th 2023. This is also what CME has posted themselves.

Cash market all time high broke today.

 

[Concinnity]

Well, either it has been broker or it has not.

My continuous chart for NQ at Tradingview showed the previous all time high at november 22th in 2021 at 16767,5, which was broken on december 13th 2023. This is also what CME has posted themselves.

Cash market all time high broke today.

Yes, it has been officially broken, that's not in question. Continuous has not, I sent you the chart. Either way it doesn't matter, if you think it does go ahead and factor that into your analysis and I'll do mine and we'll see which analysis plays out better.

 

[p0box4]

Yes, it has been officially broken, that's not in question. Continuous has not, I sent you the chart. Either way it doesn't matter, if you think it does go ahead and factor that into your analysis and I'll do mine and we'll see which analysis plays out better.

Yes, i saw the chart. I am just wondering why it looks so different from the one on Tradingview.

The all time high at yours seems to be something like 17600 (can't see the exact level on the screenshot that you sent me), while Tradingview shows it at 16767,5 about a 1000 points difference.

I'd assume there must be a reason for that and i would like to know what that reason is. No matter what platform or charting service i use, the (previous) all time high i get always seems to be around 16767 and not +17600.