ES Journal - 2023/2024

[NoahA]

I saw a statistic on here that said that 70% of breakouts fail.Not sure how accurate that is but anecdotally it feels correct.

IMO breakouts should be played after a reconfirmation of the level.Before that you are still playing the preceding range.

Agree. @volpri uses this stat quite a bit.

I think the general idea is that after a successful breakout, you wait for the re-test of the level, and then go long if price doesn't go back into the range. Now of course its never going to be as clean as this, and each person has their own definition of what a re-test is, and some might even buy the BO and still make money, even if it fails, because they have small targets. The BO after all will probably need to go high enough that it runs stops, and that might be just enough for the BO trader to make a profit. So its all subjective.

 

[schizo]

The BO after all will probably need to go high enough that it runs stops

Spot on. The initial breakout is all about gunning the stops. Once you realize this, you'll never look at breakouts the same way.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/gba-presents-house-of-gummy.374311/page-1083#post-5903614

Thanks for the shout out and props-----we haven't gotten to 4800 cash yet though.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

It is 4755 this afternoon, more than 50 pts gain today. Another day of 50pts would push it over 4800 as B1S2 predicted on Nov 9, and there are two more weeks to go.

Thanks for the nice comments. Still have a way to go for 4800 cash.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I think today a likely move to test the Feb 2 cash high at 4195. A new floor will eventually be formed at 4200 cash area as a springboard higher to 4800 by year's end.

Here was the initial prediction from Feb 2023---

 

[Laissez Faire]

Nice call indeed, @Buy1Sell2.

What a rally this turned out to be.

 

[Concinnity]

Why does everyone keep saying markets have hit ATH's? NQ has not via continuous contract, people tell me that doesn't matter. It does matter a lot. We will 100% clear it if we don't I will come back post I am an idiot, eat crow and never post here again.

 

[vanzandt]

I think today a likely move to test the Feb 2 cash high at 4195. A new floor will eventually be formed at 4200 cash area as a springboard higher to 4800 by year's end.

With all the political stuff going on, inflation, housing prices, student loan resumptions... how and why you made this call is beyond me. The "Izzy bottom" back in March 2020 was one thing... pretty obvious for many... but this one was remarkable.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Why does everyone keep saying markets have hit ATH's? NQ has not via continuous contract, people tell me that doesn't matter. It does matter a lot. We will 100% clear it if we don't I will come back post I am an idiot, eat crow and never post here again.

NDX monthly:

NQ futures contract monthly:

SPX monthly:

No need to stop posting, though.

 

[Concinnity]

NDX monthly:

View attachment 330002

NQ futures contract monthly:

View attachment 330004

SPX monthly:

View attachment 330003

No need to stop posting, though.

You must of misread my post, if you're saying we're above continuous contract high and you're right, than why would I stop posting, that means we did it. However, we are not above NQ continuous contract ATH yet. I am saying if we don't get above that I'll stop posting.

I know you think you're correct and that's fine. You do realize things like this are just a distraction and have nothing to do with actually making money, particularly from a day trading perspective. That's actually the more important point here.