It's triple witching day today, boys and girls.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Laugh.... standard play book there's the squeeze, covered my micro still holding some QQQ, bro it's the same playbook most days.
TA read + Pattern read + micro PA read + what day of week it is + time of day. A lot of confluences on this trade. But as I admitted obviously i wan't super confident in it because I didn't hold my mini, but I mean can't really hold a mini too well trading a 2k account in this action, so did best i could.
Triple witching day closes red 80 % of the time and if it's a big mover that's rarely to the upside.
I don't think a + 20 point move on an Inside Day qualifies as a squeeze, but nice up move regardless.
I don't think a + 20 point move on an Inside Day qualifies as a squeeze, but nice up move regardless.
you got your mini squeeze you want Congrat.
I kept missing fill at 56 and 79-80 all day even for the last pop. But can't complain since I nailed many top and bottom swing trade the previous two days.
Triple witching day closes red 80 % of the time and if it's a big mover that's rarely to the upside.
I don't think a + 20 point move on an Inside Day qualifies as a squeeze, but nice up move regardless.
That's fine if it isn't technically qualified as a squeeze. I don't know technically how many points would qualify, you guys can tell me. All I know is the setup was there via all the things and confluences I listed and it's one I've seen a lot, so was just giving everyone else a heads up on it to be prepared.
If you check time stamp price was like 24-28 ish. If we're truly concerned about how many points it was, it was more like 35-41.
No worries, buddy. I'm not sure if there's an exact definition of a short squeeze, but I do know that the late session move on Friday doesn't fit my loose criteria as it was a very balanced day and more of range bound session which is typical for triple witching day. The up move was also sold back in range, so no actual squeeze.
The post FOMC move on Wednesday would better fit the criteria of a squeeze, i.e., a huge one way move with new traders entering in the direction of the move and probably a lot of shorts having to cover their positions adding fuel to the move.
Fair enough, I see what you're saying from that perspective. Could be completely wrong but on range / choppy days I see a lot of people posting different places how they lost money and even people I trade with real time live struggle sometimes and are forced out of their longs or shorts (which to me I view as a squeeze on both sides).
So, even if don't break a relative high or the HOD, you don't have to physically do that to squeeze someone, particularly intra-day traders on a friday after 3:30. We weren't really that far from the HOD or all time recent high. The type of intra-day trading I do, there's no way I could or would hold from if market rips 40-60 points with high velocity in general, add in the above mentioned factors and that's essentially some of the reasons I was looking long.
That's just my thought process and how I view though from my intra-day perspective. Certainly if you've been in the game for a while, have a large account, years of profits to back you up. Than sure I could see your stop being above all time recent high. Even than are you really going to hold your shorts into the weekend and not cover given the markets current action? I wouldn't, but I am certainly not the best trader ever, so maybe my thought process here is wrong.
I saw a statistic on here that said that 70% of breakouts fail.Not sure how accurate that is but anecdotally it feels correct.
IMO breakouts should be played after a reconfirmation of the level.Before that you are still playing the preceding range.