ES Journal - 2023/2024

Laissez Faire said:
Very logical and rational. I said we'd close below 70 well in advance and we did. :)
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Nice call. It's after 4:10 so just going to cut here few point below my average, no point in holding for full stop and be stubborn.

Most trades I take are based on logic and reasoning. That's not a high on NQ that normally holds at EOD, but obviously it did.

I had a monster day though, like fully admit trading huge size for the account I am on. But it paid off today. Just have to tone it down, because eventually I'll get caught doing that I know.
 
Concinnity said:
Nice call. It's after 4:10 so just going to cut here few point below my average, no point in holding for full stop and be stubborn.

Most trades I take are based on logic and reasoning. That's not a high on NQ that normally holds at EOD, but obviously it did.

I had a monster day though, like fully admit trading huge size for the account I am on. But it paid off today. Just have to tone it down, because eventually I'll get caught doing that I know.
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Honestly, not sure what you mean by 'not a high on NQ that normally holds at EOD'.

Today, the market broke out on the Open, but was quickly sold back in range, i.e., a failed breakout.

After that we settled in a range and NQ could barely nudge above mid range on 4 attempts and nearly made a new LOD. Not a sign of strength. ES nudged a bit higher on each push, but overall the same pattern.

Considering time of day, etc., the probability of the morning HOD holding was very high when we were nearing the Close - as was a close below mid range. About 85 % says my data.

So, this was a fairly normal day in my book and it's surprising to hear anything else.

This is not meant to be condescending, but helpful. Glad you had a monster day. I didn't. :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
Honestly, not sure what you mean by 'not a high on NQ that normally holds at EOD'.

Today, the market broke out on the Open, but was quickly sold back in range, i.e., a failed breakout.

After that we settled in a range and NQ could barely nudge above mid range on 4 attempts and nearly made a new LOD. Not a sign of strength. ES nudged a bit higher on each push, but overall the same pattern.

Considering time of day, etc., the probability of the morning HOD holding was very high when we were nearing the Close - as was a close below mid range. About 85 % says my data.

So, this was a fairly normal day in my book and it's surprising to hear anything else.

This is not meant to be condescending, but helpful. Glad you had a monster day. I didn't. :)
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That's a deeper analysis than I have from a daily perspective for sure. The thing is about trading I learned though is that stats and intelligence don't always mean you make money or the money you want.

Not that I am telling you something you don't know but focusing on PA and just having certain things you understand and repeating those when they show, can lead to exponential gains. Some things I am doing are like unbelievable simple, yet under proper context work really well.

I've seen people that are not what I would exactly call intellectual heavyweights, make consistent money in trading. Just like there's people that understand math at a level I could only dream of and probably have 30-50 higher IQ than I do, but they still fail to make money in the markets.

This isn't to say I've made it yet, but I am really comfortable trading now and very close to going completely full time(I trade full time hours already as is), but still do other things as well for income. If the automation I am doing helps even 25% of what I am thinking it will, than complete full time will be in the very near future.


EDIT: That is certainly one thing I need to improve on is those hard mathematical data stats. But due to me trading mainly smaller charts, it isn't something that really changes my overall trajectory. Also, I mean't relative high (on a smaller chart), not ultimate high sorry for any confusion.
 
Concinnity said:
The thing is about trading I learned though is that stats and intelligence don't always mean you make money or the money you want.
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I guess you don't know who this dude is. Frankly, I didn't either until recently. :)

Watch to the end, and you'll see what I'm talking about.

 
schizo said:
I guess you don't know who this dude is. Frankly, I didn't either until recently. :)

Watch to the end, and you'll see what I'm talking about.

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Hey man it's an hour long video and it doesn't change anything I know. I am in the markets, I see my approach working. Everyone on these boards could tell me I am doing it wrong and it wouldn't change one thing I am doing. So, if you wouldn't mind just telling me your point I would appreciate it. Obviously you can find an exception to almost anything.

Not sure how you're taking my comment, but I do use data and stats in my approach and am aware of trading measurements. I am saying you don't need quant level math to be profitable or 140 IQ.
 
Concinnity said:
If 63.50 is as high as NQ goes before close than I am really surprised. I am long from 16042.25 got a worst average now that I added back in. If we go below 16032ish Ill have to accept my loss.
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@Laissez Faire not that it matters and I am sure no one cares, but just posting this to say it would of never stopped me out and we did go back to that relative high, just had time used against me. Not that I would of held overnight for that move anyways, just saying this is what would typically happen, if time wasn't a factor.
 
i've been buying dips and breakouts for a few weeks now.
Was partly based on how everyone was in the 'we surely can't keep going up!' camp. I like to fade sentiment like that.
Last few days i've felt a bit of a shift whereby everyone online is now ''ATH's and then some are guaranteed'', ''don't even THINK about shorting this!!'' and just lots of ridiculing of bears.
Makes me wonder if we don't get at least a nasty down day or 2 soon?
This is all very unscientific but it's something I tend to take note of.
So Not sure I personally want to 'chase it' for too much longer as I have been doing teh last week or so. If we make another massive rip from these levels I guess i'll just have to sit it out and let it go up without me.
But tbh, i'd still be very comfortable buying any sort of half decent 'dip'. (shake out some very late bulls maybe, and then carry on up?)
 
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theapprentice said:
i've been buying dips and breakouts for a few weeks now.
Was partly based on how everyone was in the 'we surely can't keep going up!' camp. I like to fade sentiment like that.
Last few days i've felt a bit of a shift whereby everyone online is now ''ATH's and then some are guaranteed'', ''don't even THINK about shorting this!!'' and just lots of ridiculing of bears.
Makes me wonder if we don't get at least a nasty down day or 2 soon?
This is all very unscientific but it's something I tend to take note of.
So Not sure I personally want to 'chase it' for too much longer as I have been doing teh last week or so. If we make another massive rip from these levels I guess i'll just have to sit it out and let it go up without me.
But tbh, i'd still be very comfortable buying any sort of half decent 'dip'. (shake out some very late bulls maybe, and then carry on up?)
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That's good logical and reasoning, as well as what the pattern read and the technical analysis read was saying. Since 11/13 this was the probability and what I was seeing and posted as well. I am fine if others saw this setting up before, that's just simply when I personally could identify it clearly enough to start taking advantage of it.

Would agree to be more prudent now in order to keep the lions share of gains made if you were aggressively taking advantage of this, same thing I am doing. Sentiment may have changed, from but PA and TA standpoint there's no clear indication we're going to have a reversal yet, like you essentially already said.

Depending on how ES/NQ finish today (if we even move much today or 9:45 does anything) may warrant even a little more cautiousness going into the start of a new week. But not interested in trying to catch or short the top, if it isn't clearly showing me what I want to see to take a trade, regardless of how much it moves down or doesn't. We will also have Sunday night and Monday action to further judge and potentially give us new information if today doesn't do much.

Otherwise just trade your TA read, pattern or trade setup or whatever you know that puts probability on your side, whatever that may be. Not saying anything you don't know, just commenting as well because you made a logical and reasonable post and that's appreciated.
 
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