ES Journal - 2023/2024

NoahA said:
93 and 91?? What contract are you guys trading? Most of us are on the December contract now. I don't see any prints for xx93 or xx91.
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I day trade the existing month right up to the last day for convenience ....... 91 Sept = 38 Dec contract...
Positioned short on Dec @ 39.50 from Mondays 2 top... Not as big as I want to be...
 
Anticipating move South to my 4410-14 target ...... rather quickly!

Added a few more on the kiss from under at 91/38 Dec.... Bots really front run my target zones now, missing the majority of my sell scale!
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
Sept** was at 4491
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We know, and we are happy you finally realized what I was typing.

Marcheshigh.JPG
 
You spend far too much time here trying to be witty with nonsense ... If you spent a fraction of that time on actually trading, you may even be slightly profitable!
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
Not as big as I want to be...
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Hahaha... that's a perfect set-up for any number of jokes.... but yeah, one would sure think the next 3 days could prove fruitful for the bears. Lots of data, and lets not forget the UAW strike is pretty much a given at this point as both sides appear to be too far apart.

If all 150K workers hit the picket lines with the resolve to stay out until they get their desired contracts, phew... that'll be a biggie. You guys should tape a little yellow postit note on your terminal --- "Thursday 9/14 11:59ET"--- because this one, if a resolution is reached, will burn every minute going into that drop dead time. If they walk Thursday midnight lol... Friday is gonna be colorful.

99% assume the strike is a given, I would be one of those. But lets not forget, since it is a 99% given, the economic ramifications and their trickle down effects throughout the supply chains... it's already priced in. So as a bear, why even worry about witching hour (Or in reality any time between now and then)? Right? Well, I can think of two reasons.

One, there was one pretty important entity that came out Monday and said "We don't think there'll be a strike." --- The White House. :wtf:

Why would they say that?! Why even risk sounding that stupid? See, unlike the threat of the rail strike, the Administration has no authority in this matter. The UAW doesn't fall under the rules of the Railway Labor Act. Technically, Biden can't do a thing aside from twisting arms and calling in favors. Beats me, but just know that if a deal is in fact reached, the S&P will make a big move up in the matter of seconds as it reclaims that fear premium that is baked in for what appears to be one of the most consequential strikes in UAW history. I wouldn't want to be short without a stop if that news broke in the rth. So there that.

Second thing I noticed... while the $SPX was down nearly all day, shedding a half of a percent, the equal weight $SPXEW was green most of the day. (The $SPX's bastard step-brother that weighs all 500 companies equally, ie not by market-cap. I like it because it levels out the power of the magnificent 7, providing a better barometer on things). $SPXEW only dropped at the end there, and only .15%.
That... and the Russell was green today too. :wtf:
Hmmmmm. I wonder why?Those companies are the ones that will feel the sting the most from an extended strike.

I'm not making any predictions lol, I'm on the record already from over a month ago saying I think the week leading into the FOMC will be an up week. Do I still feel that way? I do. I think the market will recieve tomorrows CPI data well. I think home prices will show some ease as the 12 month moving window will have July/August of 2022 fall off. Not much mind you, but I think we might see a slowdown; and yes energy will hit core inflation, but whatever, Powell doesn't care about friggin' oil. Oil is oil and you can't base a nation's monetary policy off the whims of a few hypocrit Sheiks in the Middle East. And food is coming down nicely, and aside from the UAW, labor costs are pretty much a known know at this point. The raises are over.

So Mr. Spooz... for now you say "you wish you were bigger"... but perhaps when the bell tolls midnight Thursday, you'll be glad you weren't. Perhaps. :sneaky:
 
VZ, Better off just trading what you observe than making predictions.... The real trick is to be psychologically flexible enough to trade both ways ... from both sides of the plate vs the Perma Bull approach, which limits earning potential.

98.25 target 1 hit for half....+40 x 5.... remainder trailed to 20.50
 
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