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ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Drop by and try to knock you down? You do love turning things dramatic.How nice of you to drop by and try to knock me down.
In case you missed it, I explicitly said I'm not making any predictions for September as a whole. I'm merely keeping track of prior cycles and seasonality as a roadmap to prepare myself for the various ways this month can play out keeping in mind that there's a strong bias lower in order to prepare myself for that. I don't like coming into the market unprepared.
I'm well aware that there's a plethora of alternatives, but I'm not personally convinced they're any better than my own approach.
As for predicting and betting - anyone who takes a directional trade is making both a bet and a prediction that price will continue or reverse depending on whether that trade is going with the current direction or fading the current direction. Doesn't change anything if your time horizon is extremely short and you're just 'following price'.
You're only fooling yourself if you think otherwise.
Here’s my perspective. In the snippet I quoted, you have taken a sample size of 15 previous Tuesdays post Labor Day and made a prediction about the current Tuesday based on the net change of the previous days. This is called inductive reasoning. Predicting is one type of inductive reasoning.
You often complain about how “marginal” futures trading is and how there’s little room for error. That is your experience, of course, but it is not the truth. Do you think there may be a causal relationship between your inductive reasoning/predicting and your experience? Because you think all directional trading is predicting, it may not be possible for you to consider the question.
I didn’t sugarcoat my criticism of your use of inductive reasoning. If I had known I was dealing with such fragile emotions I probably would have stated things differently. Usually when I see someone digging himself a deeper hole I just pass by without comment. Going forward, I will leave you to your devices.
Good luck.
Had you understood my post, you would see that your request is invalid.If his reasoning is badly flawed, I would love to hear your reasoning and predictions for September. Something actionable would be awesome.
I know you have an affinity for each other, but in this game commiserating is for losers.
The only thing that matters in this game is results. If someone shows me they can trade based on the stars with a statistical edge, I'd be willing to listen.Had you understood my post, you would see that your request is invalid.
I know you have an affinity for each other, but in this game commiserating is for losers.
LF does things from raw data analysis and coming up with statistical probabilities, and most importantly, shows trades he is taking.
You often complain about how “marginal” futures trading is and how there’s little room for error. That is your experience, of course, but it is not the truth.
If what you're saying is that in trading there is lots of room for error, this is a bold statement and one that needs to be backed up with some proof, not just words.
Prove to us that you're a winner.I know you have an affinity for each other, but in this game commiserating is for losers.
You are young and perhaps used to making demands of others around you and having them fulfilled. I am old and used to dealing with all kinds of demands from people who have no right to. I suggest you get used to not getting your way.The only thing that matters in this game is results. If someone shows me they can trade based on the stars with a statistical edge, I'd be willing to listen.
LF does things from raw data analysis and coming up with statistical probabilities, and most importantly, shows trades he is taking.
If what you're saying is that in trading there is lots of room for error, this is a bold statement and one that needs to be backed up with some proof, not just words.
Prove to us that you're a winner.
I'm old enough to understand what it means to say a bunch of words but not actually say anything. You made a strong suggestion that LF is wrong in his analysis and way of thinking, but you don't offer anything better in return. So your opinion, without any backing, is worth fuck all.You are young and perhaps used to making demands of others around you and having them fulfilled. I am old and used to dealing with all kinds of demands from people who have no right to. I suggest you get used to not getting your way.
Thanks for your immense contribution to this thread. (do old people understand sarcasm?)
Drop by and try to knock you down? You do love turning things dramatic.
You suggested my post was a prank and suggested that I might not be serious. If you want a civil discussion I suggest you learn some manners first. If you don't understand that a post like that is not well received you may suffer from some social disorder.
To clarify, I don't mind people disagreeing with me or questioning my approach, but have some respect and show some intelligence in the discussion.
You often complain about how “marginal” futures trading is and how there’s little room for error. That is your experience, of course, but it is not the truth.
There's no complaining. I'm merely stating the facts when I see newbies come on EliteTrader who wants to become rich from day trading index futures asking where to start.
If there was little room for error, you could merely go long or short at will and collect 100 points per trade. Obviously, that's not the case. It requires skill, precision and timing. Or do you disagree with that? Just another example of you jumping into a thread trying to disagree with me and discredit me.
If it's not a marginal business, why don't you take some of these newbies you're suggesting should go down the Hershey path under your wing and get them 'operational' in a few weeks? They should be at 100 contracts in a month.
PS: Today's prediction worked out just fine.
You’re welcome. (Yes we do.)***
Thanks for your immense contribution to this thread. (do old people understand sarcasm?)
You’re being way too emotional. I don’t know why you keep bringing Jack Hershey into this. I knew him, he was a great person, he gave a lot to others.You suggested my post was a prank and suggested that I might not be serious. If you want a civil discussion I suggest you learn some manners first. If you don't understand that a post like that is not well received you may suffer from some social disorder.
To clarify, I don't mind people disagreeing with me or questioning my approach, but have some respect and show some intelligence in the discussion.
There's no complaining. I'm merely stating the facts when I see newbies come on EliteTrader who wants to become rich from day trading index futures asking where to start.
If there was little room for error, you could merely go long or short at will and collect 100 points per trade. Obviously, that's not the case. It requires skill, precision and timing. Or do you disagree with that? Just another example of you jumping into a thread trying to disagree with me and discredit me.
If it's not a marginal business, why don't you take some of these newbies you're suggesting should go down the Hershey path under your wing and get them 'operational' in a few weeks? They should be at 100 contracts in a month.
PS: Today's prediction worked out just fine.
You also know how I trade as I revealed in our private messages with many of my trades shared with you. Thus, you are purposely making misleading statements for your own reasons.
The irony is you begged me to teach you how to trade futures and I declined. It was not only because of the infeasibility of doing it online but it was clear to me you were not a good candidate to work with.
There is no need to continue this back and forth. In all sincerity I wish you success.
You also know how I trade as I revealed in our private messages with many of my trades shared with you. Thus, you are purposely making misleading statements for your own reasons.
The irony is you begged me to teach you how to trade futures and I declined. It was not only because of the infeasibility of doing it online but it was clear to me you were not a good candidate to work with.
You continue to expose the flaws in your character.
Private messages are private and should be respected as such. I wouldn't even reveal that I talked to anyone in private out of respect and common courtesy.
Further, I never begged you to teach me how to trade futures, so that's just flat out dishonest, but I did make a private inquiry as you were boasting about your results and I was curious to learn more about the Jack Hershey method around 2 years ago.
Let's just leave it at that.