I think a lot of the critics of a predictive approach doesn't quite understand what it entails. Not to mention that they probably don't have one themselves either. How can you criticize something you haven't even assembled and tested yourself? Looking at a chart and 'guessing' is not a prediction or quantitative approach.
Simplistically, the way I approach it is that I may have scenario A and B on the Open with weighted probabilities for each. I'm then just looking for confirmation of which scenario is playing out - while leaning on the scenario which have the highest probability.
As such, a prediction is not written in stone and trusted blindly on evidence of the contrary. It's a guidemap to help you be on the right side of the market and anticipate the day ahead before and as it unfolds.
Further, a good predictive model should auto-update in real time. In a sense, that way, you're following the market as new data is feeded into the model and it can confirm/negate the most likely outcome.
For ES as of right now, 10:28, it's unlikely that we'll close above 4518 today.
That prediction could change on new information, but as of now, this is trading like a down day as predicted yesterday.
