ES Journal - 2023/2024

You don’t use ES in long term portfolio. I sold SPXL two weeks ago and using the proceeds to long short 3x etfs gradually, and long CSI300 and HSI, with high confidence. Also YM goes nowhere until last week’s pull up, allegedly the market breath is improving. I don’t buy that. 25% in 3-13 week t bills, for the conviction trades.
 
I’d agree with most things said . Just like Covid disaster mkt stayed down a few months then never looked back . But there is one major difference that should have and still might make a difference . Interest rates . From 0-5% is an incredible move up . Even if earnings turn around those earnings are worth much less at current rates . P/e’s should have contracted big . Instead p/e’s as high as ever seen . There’s big competition in cd’s and money mkt’s at 5% .
 
SammyJ said:
I’d agree with most things said . Just like Covid disaster mkt stayed down a few months then never looked back . But there is one major difference that should have and still might make a difference . Interest rates . From 0-5% is an incredible move up . Even if earnings turn around those earnings are worth much less at current rates . P/e’s should have contracted big . Instead p/e’s as high as ever seen . There’s big competition in cd’s and money mkt’s at 5% .
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Excellent point. But history has shown us that the market does not follow rational arguments, which is why as a daytrader I simply follow the daily momentum and limit my exposure.
 
Big AAPL said:
Excellent point. But history has shown us that the market does not follow rational arguments, which is why as a daytrader I simply follow the daily momentum and limit my exposure.
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Correct and I the same . But I’d be foolish and naive not to understand past history and potential outcomes . And recognize a change . Outside the naz the mkt has done little for months . Till further notice trade from the long side .I read something the other day and shook my head . When S@p entered a bull mkt it was the longest it took since 1948 for a mkt to go from bear mkt to a bull mkt .In reality all the bear did was give back 1 year ( 2021 ) of a 12 yr bull mkt .I’ll be interested how the rest of yr turns out
 
SammyJ said:
I’d agree with most things said . Just like Covid disaster mkt stayed down a few months then never looked back . But there is one major difference that should have and still might make a difference . Interest rates . From 0-5% is an incredible move up . Even if earnings turn around those earnings are worth much less at current rates . P/e’s should have contracted big . Instead p/e’s as high as ever seen . There’s big competition in cd’s and money mkt’s at 5% .
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You have to also throw in QE, but that’s coming back, they already bailed did it recently and offset pretty much all of the results of tightening, so it will likely be a mix of a bit of salt and sugar in baking to reach balance, higher rates plus QE, they won’t have a choice really.
 
Should have come up more out of the gate.
S 4355.5
RTH close tommo will be lower.
Not sure how tonight will go, probably not much higher either way.
 
Master Pu said:
Euro markets are ready to slide.
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Yeah I think tonight if anyone jumped in short around 55, they should probably take the bird in the hand if it gets around 46, or set a trailing stop, because I think it'll just be mostly the algo chop gunning stops for the next several hours..

If by some chance it does drop much below 46 tonight and keeps going with no bounce, I'd hold on because tomorrow rth will see a nice metered selloff. Nothing drastic, just slow and steady.

4358.50 would be a great limit entry order short for anyone not in yet... that wants to go to bed.
Just use a stop around 61.25 on top. Just in case.
 
Such a small range, Crazy.
10 points since RTH open, otherwise 20 points.

Pretty sure a lot of traders lost more than 10 points in this tight range.

4350 nice level though

Guess we’re waiting for something …
But no news is due for today. Maybe tomorrow.
 
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