Same this week.
The quote above didn't specify late week strength in case that wasn't obvious.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Same this week.
The quote above didn't specify late week strength in case that wasn't obvious.
That sucks, man.
Not sure if you're interested in advice, but since you post publicly, I'll say my impression is that your view on where you think the market should go based on your macro view is in conflict with where the market is actually going.
The massive COVID rally was the final nail in the coffin for me trying to make sense of the market from a fundamental viewpoint. I try to have no bias beyond a technical one. Even that can be costly if not flexible enough.
you know deep down without a fundamental view, it is a casino.
up or down, place the bet, feeling lucky.
Fundamental has to have TA confirmation/confluence, otherwise, you may be pissing against the wind. I know, cause I do this at times
Not if you're a technical trader, IMO.
I'll add one comment to what I said earlier, though. I suppose I do have bias in the sense that I'm more skeptical towards rallies these days. More reason to expect them to fail due to the fundamental backdrop.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a larger sell some time this year, but in the meanwhile we will probably see plenty of up days.
I struggle with this as well because I am a bear at heart. So much of the data that I've discussed in other posts like they yield curve and the oil cuts and even low copper prices are indicative of major problems ahead. And let's also not even forget that Europe is now officially in a recession after they revised the numbers so things could in fact be even worse than we imagine. But if somehow the solution to the problems will be massive stimulus and a huge debt increase, then the market can easily continue to rally even though the economy is falling apart.
if i want a poepeyes family meal, will do a point; if i want a steak dinner, will do 5 points; etc. nothing has stopped anyone to trade/gamble.
generally speaking, a rolex op is the profit target each entry/exit, until it gets there.
not carrying es for retirment for sure.
the stock market is not the economy. Macro only matters in the short term to the extent of how the market reacts to it. If all the fundamental shorts are pounding the table and large participants are shorting the market, while the market continues to grind up, with improved market breadth, that's a huge clue.
That being said, the crowd is beginning to come back around to being bullish. however long this can last is anyone's guess. Druckenmiller figured out the housing bubble in 2004. large speculators were heavily short for most of 2007, and yet shit didn't hit the fan until later 2008. being early = being wrong, even if you're right.
That being said, the crowd is beginning to come back around to being bullish. however long this can last is anyone's guess. Druckenmiller figured out the housing bubble in 2004. large speculators were heavily short for most of 2007, and yet shit didn't hit the fan until later 2008. being early = being wrong, even if you're right.
First it will be don't fight the tape for institutions, and then FOMO for the retail. Then the institutions will see into the retail as long as the retail goes Bullish. Along the way there will be shake outs enough to revive the "buy the dip" crowd. How committed they are, is a good gauge of how much upside remains.
Same old same old.
I am long on 68% of portfolio for last 6 weeks. Will go 0% when it becomes uber bullish plus a big spike up.
Same old same old.
I am long on 68% of portfolio for last 6 weeks. Will go 0% when it becomes uber bullish plus a big spike up.