ES Journal - 2023/2024

[rb7]

Wake me up guys when the market will start moving.....zzzzzz

 

[Laissez Faire]

Wake me up guys when the market will start moving.....zzzzzz

Not the worst action lately, though.

Did you do any more testing on NQ, yet?

+ 22.50 off the lows on ES = $1125.

+ 107.00 off the lows on NQ = $2140.

Plenty of juice.

 

[rb7]

Not the worst action lately, though.

Did you do any more testing on NQ, yet?

+ 22.50 off the lows on ES = $1125.

+ 107.00 off the lows on NQ = $2140.

Plenty of juice.

Yes, I did test NQ, for the last 6 months.
Here are my findings comparing to ES, using my algo:
Profit ($): +9% (better)
Time to recover DD: +70% (worst)

And we must take into consideration that the margin for NQ is 65% higher than ES (at IB).
So bottom line, with my algo, NQ is no significantly better than ES (at least for the last 6 months, which is not a long period I must admit!).
Results would be different with a different algo.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Yes, I did test NQ, for the last 6 months.
Here are my findings comparing to ES, using my algo:
Profit ($): +9% (better)
Time to recover DD: +70% (worst)

And we must take into consideration that the margin for NQ is 65% higher than ES (at IB).
So bottom line, with my algo, NQ is no significantly better than ES (at least for the last 6 months, which is not a long period I must admit!).
Results would be different with a different algo.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing that.

 

[Specterx]

Feds in trouble. The idea behind rate hikes was to hit asset prices hard like stocks and housing .Take money out of peoples pockets so they felt poorer and spent less .House prices near all time highs up 35% in last 3 yrs. We gave back only 1/2 the gain of 1 yr (2021) of a 13 yr bull mkt. All this in the midst of rates going from 0 to 5%. P/e’s should have contracted substantially based on rates skying . Earnings have been flat at best. Wall streets trying to pull a rabbit out of their hat exciting all with Ai hype. I’m surprised with real competition of 5% safe cd’s and trillions moved into higher yields the mkts done so well.But that’s what the mkt does is surprise most.Looks like rates will have to go higher .

The thing is that while the Fed has raised rates, they're also handing out $50 billion a month to banks in the form of IOER - newly printed helicopter money being injected into banks' accounts at the Fed, with no offsetting asset swap. The Fed is also monetizing debt by swapping $0.80 of treasuries for $1 of cash. All this is quickly undoing the liquidity tightening from 2022.

The catch-22 is that the higher rates go, the more money the Fed prints via IOER. Nobody is yet talking about this dynamic, but it has the potential to become an explosive issue if inflation fails to recede as scheduled over the next few months.

 

[Laissez Faire]

The current market seems to have a lot of people scratching their heads, both bulls and bears. Wouldn't be surprised if we see another major reversal lower at some point. Nobody appears to know anything.

So far, only a pullback, but I imagine there must be plenty of bag holders who rushed in at the highs now.

This market keeps doing what it's been doing for the last few years now, i.e., luring people in at highs and lows.

 

[Master Pu]

European indices are pulling back, as I posted previously, DAX, STOXX, CAC, IT40 have whopper of bearish divergences near ATHs. Germany now entered a recession, SPX hasn’t cleared the dreaded 4200 and is pulling back, trend is about AI, it’s as clear as day, but for broader economic sectors, it is not that wonderful. Anyway, screw any fundamental reasons

 

[mervyn]

otehr than nikki, i think all asia major indecies are ytd.

 

[mervyn]

The thing is that while the Fed has raised rates, they're also handing out $50 billion a month to banks in the form of IOER - newly printed helicopter money being injected into banks' accounts at the Fed, with no offsetting asset swap. The Fed is also monetizing debt by swapping $0.80 of treasuries for $1 of cash. All this is quickly undoing the liquidity tightening from 2022.

The catch-22 is that the higher rates go, the more money the Fed prints via IOER. Nobody is yet talking about this dynamic, but it has the potential to become an explosive issue if inflation fails to recede as scheduled over the next few months.

I think this is priced in into the short term bills. 21 days CMB was 6.2%, while 4 week was 5.8% and 8 week at 5.4% respectly. Deposit moneies go to money market funds, the funds mostly are buying short term bills and corp repos. That's the "magic" of MMT but none of the serious econmists are buying the arguement. If debt ceiling passes, additional 1 trillion would be printed, drain the money from the market, yields would go down a bit, at least in theory.

 

[Master Pu]