ES Journal - 2023/2024

mervyn said:
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By any measurement criteria, this stock appears overpriced. It's hard to envision a growth trajectory that could justify its current price. This sentiment has been consistent for the past week, month, and even six months, yet it has not influenced its value. Despite the warnings from financial experts predicting that retail investors will suffer as they did during the late '90s internet bubble, it's these very experts who have faced the brunt of the losses. I don't personally own any Nvidia shares and I can't persuade myself to invest at the current price. However, this probably implies the stock's value will continue to rise.

The key drivers behind asset price fluctuations are sentiment and positioning, not fundamental value.
 
Master Pu said:
By any measurement criteria, this stock appears overpriced. It's hard to envision a growth trajectory that could justify its current price. This sentiment has been consistent for the past week, month, and even six months, yet it has not influenced its value. Despite the warnings from financial experts predicting that retail investors will suffer as they did during the late '90s internet bubble, it's these very experts who have faced the brunt of the losses. I don't personally own any Nvidia shares and I can't persuade myself to invest at the current price. However, this probably implies the stock's value will continue to rise.

The key drivers behind asset price fluctuations are sentiment and positioning, not fundamental value.
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if you finished watching, the point is revenue guidance is 11b next q, 57% more than this q, none of those showed up in its suppliers a/r, not its users’ capex.
 
Laissez Faire said:
What do you mean by "Indices like the NASDAQ are merely diversions - something more people should realize with time."?



100% agree.

What's your take on this, though? Meaning, what do you pay attention to and what do you discard? Or is that merely a subtle art that you're not able to define?

I'll offer my take without having been asked, but my simple process have been reduced to pretty much listening to nobody. Even those that are really good will be flat out wrong at times. So, listening to people beyond the development phase where you work out your own methodology can be costly and even flat out stupid.

Yesterday's rally may have been crazy or even irrational from a fundamental view (what do I know), but from a technical viewpoint it was a strong trend day higher where you would have been paid handsomely buying the open and any dips that followed. And using price history as a guide - yesterday have happened so many times in the past and is really not anything new, although I saw a lot of people yesterday in disbelief.
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I had to write SPX really to make my point, look at what SPX has done since we hit the low, about 20% swing and stagnated for some time too, whereas stocks that are developing AI have rallied much more, I own META for example and when everyone was slamming it, I was investing into it, look where it is now. The trend is about AI, everyone is writing about it now, so invest in AI :)
 
mervyn said:
I don't watch the watchlist these days, only cheer on the next trillion companies, Meta is close and NVDA is next, all leap calls to 2H2022 and 1H2023. The rest are small pocket changes.

Shouldn't sell $250 diagonal calls presplit on TSLA a year ago, lessons learned.

If Powell is replaced, I suspect the market will go up even quicker, but the top is hard to guess.
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A little bit belated 1 trillion company, never late.

My post from Nov 18 2021, see hwo far a drop it will be from here. But I have the positions...
 
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