ES Journal - 2023/2024

spectastic said:
during druckenmiller's keynote q/a at USC, he addressed the us debt ceiling as (paraphrasing) being worried about the high tide damaging the pier when there's a 30 ft tsunami headed towards you.

in any case, those diamond patterns by themselves has no implication on the future and can break in any direction. and it begs the question if we're to break down, why haven't we already with everything that has hit the fan in the last several weeks?
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Well, better you expect the best and prepare for the worst. Anything can happen.
 
schizo said:
Did you watch the video in its entirety? This dude goes on a fear mongering campaign about Uncle Sam possibly defaulting on its IOU, only to switch to pumping up some gold stock (which he probably already owns). This is a classic pump and dump clickbait scheme IMO.
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Everyone has some sort of an agenda, don’t you? Ok, so he is a pump & dump guy, doesn’t mean that there weren’t some interesting factual bits of info in the video, right? You make your own conclusions, hopefully after having had assessed various pros and cons ;)
 
At least that's what my predictive model suggests, i.e., we'll open gap up today. May not get continuation on the Open, though. Range bound and mean reverting market these days.
 
Master Pu said:
Everyone has some sort of an agenda, don’t you? Ok, so he is a pump & dump guy, doesn’t mean that there weren’t some interesting factual bits of info in the video, right? You make your own conclusions, hopefully after having had assessed various pros and cons ;)
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Yes, as with everything else, I'm sure there's something to bite on depending on how you look at it. But like I've stated earlier, this ain't anything new. Everyone knows about the congressional showdown on raising the debt ceiling, but they also know that congress ain't that stupid to default on their loan either.

The debt ceiling will eventually get lifted. Anyone who says otherwise is the stupid one. But I know you're smart enough to know this already. :sneaky:
 
schizo said:
I have a nasty feeling that we will not only gap up but head higher for tomorrow. I'm thinking maybe 4180 for the target.
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That's where my model is fuzzy - as it suggests a gap up could either continue or get sold for a move back in range.

I had some confidence buying this dip due to the very high probability of a gap up open, but I may be happy to take it off for 20 points, although 4180 would be preferrable. :)

Maybe re-enter long on the Open if yesterday's high or the RTH Open holds.

upload_2023-5-16_9-42-26.png
 
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