ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Laissez Faire]

I’m still lurking a bit on Twitter and the bearish sentiment seems really strong. Not many who seem bullish. Quite a few are looking for a crash as well.

Makes you wonder…

Can the crowd really get it right?

I think it’s better to trade it day by day or week by week.

 

[chillibean]

i'm a bear but only very short term.
Went short earlier.

Been waiting for a little dip and maybe this is it. Will likely be flipping long soon enough

 

[Master Pu]

I’m still lurking a bit on Twitter and the bearish sentiment seems really strong. Not many who seem bullish. Quite a few are looking for a crash as well.

Makes you wonder…

Can the crowd really get it right?

I think it’s better to trade it day by day or week by week.

Also, if you open demo accounts on CFD trading platforms, that's where mostly small speculators hang around, you would also observe that around 60%+ of total positions are bearish, which isn't extreme, yet it is a majority.

AAPL earnings 4th May.

So market doesn't want to sell off with expectation of 0.25 raise, imagine if they don't raise this time, market can go up 5% in a day.

 

[Laissez Faire]

So market doesn't want to sell off with expectation of 0.25 raise, imagine if they don't raise this time, market can go up 5% in a day.

Oh, for sure. 5 % may be a stretch, but this can really rip on Wednesday with continuation towards week end. Could even rip on a 0.25 raise.

I think the last few FOMC days have sold off, though.

 

[Master Pu]

Could we agree that technically this is not a downtrend any longer?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Could we agree that technically this is not a downtrend any longer?

The down trend ended a while back, IMO, and we've been range bound for a multi-month period. I would guess that continues for a while longer.

 

[chillibean]

i'm a bear but only very short term.
Went short earlier.

Been waiting for a little dip and maybe this is it. Will likely be flipping long soon enough

View attachment 313510

going flat here

 

[Master Pu]

Daily chart

Based on COTs, speculators who are betting on a decrease in stock prices, keep shorting equities. If market continues to head up, they wound need to cover at some point.

 

[chillibean]

going flat here

View attachment 313530

got back in.
flat again now.
And waiting for a chance to get long now I think

 

[Laissez Faire]

Nice drop. I hope it continues until I'm back at my trading computer.

I mentioned 4150/30 as potential support on Sunday, so let's see if those levels are worth something if we get there.