ES Journal - 2023/2024

rb7 said:
Without going to much into the details:
40% of win rate (not much important for me).
60% of winning weeks
80% of winning months.
Averaging 5 positions/day.
With tight risk management rules (key of capital preservation)
More...
Thanks very much! Our of curiosity, is there a reason why you're reluctant to go into more details? I'm just trying to understand if there is an edge you're trying to not give away perhaps.

I think many of us here would be very unhappy about only 60% winning days. Don't get me wrong, this may in fact be an excellent metric for traders who are actually trading and profitable, but maybe many of us have too high expectations and think we can finish every day green if we try hard enough or blame a losing day on something we didn't do right, thinking a green day every day is possible.
 
ES going higher and filled yesterday's gap now. NQ going lower, but could reverse in an instant like it often does.

Let's see if we can break above the yesterday's high. Not convinced yet, but holding long as long as 45 or so holds. May not be an easy short if we roll over and reverse lower.
 
NoahA said:
Thanks very much! Our of curiosity, is there a reason why you're reluctant to go into more details? I'm just trying to understand if there is an edge you're trying to not give away perhaps.

I think many of us here would be very unhappy about only 60% winning days. Don't get me wrong, this may in fact be an excellent metric for traders who are actually trading and profitable, but maybe many of us have too high expectations and think we can finish every day green if we try hard enough or blame a losing day on something we didn't do right, thinking a green day every day is possible.
More...
I don't track many metrics cause I don't need to.
One of the most important for me is the DD Recovery ratio (currently at approx. 1 month).
I don't size based on how much I can win, but on how much I can lose.

Having said that, most of wannabe profitable traders want to win all the time, and they want to win big and get rich fast. I don't have statistics on that, it's just my perception.

My take is that the first goal of any new trader should be to avoid losing. I'm not referring to losing a day here and there, but month after month.
Once that goal is achieved, or while it's on its way, then the next step should be to begin to make money, not that 1M$ in the first year (I'm won't give any name here!!;)). The thing is (IMO), the faster you want to make money, the more you need to risk. And at the end, most of traders trying that just blow-up. Yes, we can get rich with trading, but usually, once profitable, it will take time. Not days, not months, not 1 or 2 years. There ain't such thing as a free lunch. But I guess there are exceptions to everything.

60% if winning days might not seem like very good, but if you do the math, and take the hypothesis that the average profit of the winning days are better than to the losing days, you'll come up with good results, at least good enough for me to keep going based on the risk involved.
But all this are very subjective and based on personal goals. For a trader who wants to make 100% per month, for him, I'm a shitty trader. I don't do that and it isn't my goal.

And about my 'EDGE' here it is:
I go long when the market is going up, I go short when the market is going down. I'll just go with the flow.
 
rb7 said:
I don't track many metrics cause I don't need to.
One of the most important for me is the DD Recovery ratio (currently at approx. 1 month).
I don't size based on how much I can win, but on how much I can lose.

Having said that, most of wannabe profitable traders want to win all the time, and they want to win big and get rich fast. I don't have statistics on that, it's just my perception.

My take is that the first goal of any new trader should be to avoid losing. I'm not referring to losing a day here and there, but month after month.
Once that goal is achieved, or while it's on its way, then the next step should be to begin to make money, not that 1M$ in the first year (I'm won't give any name here!!;)). The thing is (IMO), the faster you want to make money, the more you need to risk. And at the end, most of traders trying that just blow-up. Yes, we can get rich with trading, but usually, once profitable, it will take time. Not days, not months, not 1 or 2 years. There ain't such thing as a free lunch. But I guess there are exceptions to everything.

60% if winning days might not seem like very good, but if you do the math, and take the hypothesis that the average profit of the winning days are better than to the losing days, you'll come up with good results, at least good enough for me to keep going based on the risk involved.
But all this are very subjective and based on personal goals. For a trader who wants to make 100% per month, for him, I'm a shitty trader. I don't do that and it isn't my goal.

And about my 'EDGE' here it is:
I go long when the market is going up, I go short when the market is going down. I'll just go with the flow.
More...
Excellent. Thanks very much for the detailed reply!
 
I went with the flow today, @rb7.

Regarding my predictions, they're just guidelines to help me structure the day and know what's possible and most likely to occur on any given day. Pre-market, I said I was a cautious long, that this could easily reverse and that historically the last day of April has a negative net change.

That does not mean I'm going to short the market. It's just something to keep me on my toes, I guess.

I was expecting a test of the HOD and when we broke through successfully I knew 4170 was an easy target. I think we possibly hit 4180 today, but I trailed an aggressive stop knowing I had a small chance of staying on and not risking giving back some nice gains.

If today is another huge trend day and we hit some crazy number I will hate myself, but if we top out at 4180 I will be content. Right now, this looks unstoppable. :)

upload_2023-4-28_16-20-32.png
 
78.50 was the exact upside target, but I figured we'd overshoot it. Hit 78.25 now to the tick. If we sell off from here I'd be impressed, but it could be worthwhile with some caution here to the long side as we covered a lot of ground very quickly. I'd be equally impressed if we continue ripping above 4180. Maybe I check my phone later today and see 4200. Who knows... :)

From my point of view, every day usually have some easy moves/targets. Once they're tagged the rest of the day can be harder to navigate with more chop and uncertainty. I figure today is one such day at this point, so I won't linger.

And as I was finishing writing that up the market is back up against the highs. My God, this is ripping.

PS: Been lurking a bit on Twitter lately and there's a bunch of guys following this guru who are short from around 4100 on yesterday's Open and are still holding without stops. That is, a few of them had to cover as they were close to being liquidated anyway. Allegedly, he runs a 100% (!) winning strategy and have been doing very well so far this year, but we all know how that eventually ends.
 
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