ES Journal - 2023/2024

schizo said:
What was the catalyst behind today's move? I kinda knew today would be bullish, but hot damn, who woulda thought it would be one of those face rippers. :wtf:

As for tomorrow, I see a modest down day, mostly due to profit taking.
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I've no idea, but got to love the Monday morning quarterbacking after the market rallied 60 points. Crickets after Wednesday's Close.

I have no strong opinion for today, but I can see the possibillity of an inside day, taking out yesterday's low or a push higher above yesterday's high. A sustained rally and a close above yesterday's high appears least likely.

Now, someone may say that this is a useless forecast, but I disagree with that since I know so many people think that yesterday's rally is a guaranteed follow through on Friday. So, I'm threading with caution here. If we can get a pullback lower than this I might take a stab at the long side, but waiting for now.

If I had a lot of money in the bank, I would possibly have shorted this right here (40) for a pullback to say 4120, but it's too uncertain for me. Sidelined. :)
 
russell bringing the market down PM, same as it did on 4/25. nasdaq not a single f give. makes total sense. though not entirely surprising, since bottoming on russell usually takes multiple days. it needs to hold 171 support though
 
spectastic said:
russell bringing the market down PM, same as it did on 4/25. nasdaq not a single f give. makes total sense. though not entirely surprising, since bottoming on russell usually takes multiple days. it needs to hold 171 support though
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This makes perfect sense as Russell is full of small cap companies which likely do struggle in this environment, whereas bigger and more capitalised companies aren't doing that badly, especially so due to them being international.
 
NoahA said:
Out of curiosity, I wonder if you don't mind sharing some stats of your algo? I'm always intrigued by the stats of traders, things like win rate, average win vs. average loss, number of trades taken, that sort of thing. The common theme seems to be to cut losers quickly and let winners run. Many traders seem to say that easily half of their trades are losers, and hence why the win needs to be bigger than the loss, but I wonder if you don't mind sharing some simple stats like this. Is your algo just grinding it out day to day or is it always printing money?
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Without going to much into the details:
40% of win rate (not much important for me).
60% of winning weeks
80% of winning months.
Averaging 5 positions/day.
With tight risk management rules (key of capital preservation)
 
rb7 said:
Without going to much into the details:
40% of win rate (not much important for me).
60% of winning weeks
80% of winning months.
Averaging 5 positions/day.
With tight risk management rules (key of capital preservation)
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Shouldn’t weeks and months % be the same?
 
Master Pu said:
Shouldn’t weeks and months % be the same?
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Not at all. Even with 75% of winning weeks, you could be losing all months and all years.
Unless the average of profit during the winning weeks is equal to the average of profit during the losing weeks, which is not the case for my results.

And I realized that I've made a mistake: It's 60% of winning days (not weeks). I don't really keep track of weekly results.
 
I'm a cautious long here, but will not give it much slack. Looking for a test of yesterday's high if we find a bid on the Open. If we breakout and get continuation - why not 4180 today?

Yet, the last trading day of April actually have a negative net change historically and usually have traded lower historically. And trend days like yesterday usually don't see a strong surge higher the following day.

So, that does warrant some caution against pressing longs too hard today with the risk of this turning into an Inside Day or going back inside yesterday's range if we fail to breakout.

Let's see where the tide goes... :)
 
schizo said:
Is there traction going forward though? For some reason, I feel we'll just put in a double top and keel over by next Wednesday. I can already hear the boys on Wall Street: "What, I said there would be a bull market? I dunno what you've been smoking, man." Go figure. :sneaky:
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Yeah thats definitely one possible scenario. Bulls still keep momentum with today ending anywhere near here, and spy could just as easily close 415+.
 
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