ES Journal - 2023/2024

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Impossible to know the direction here . But based on history rarely do we plunge from such a long period of sideways . That’s based on pessimism building and shorts getting the opp to load shorts . Till further notice this is day trading action and nothing more .
 
Laissez Faire said:
Breakeven stop now, maybe? :)

Holding up fairly well here, IMO.

I would love a decent sell and to see volatility spike a bit again.
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Nah, thanks but I'll pass on the offer. I'll unload when we go down to 4100 tomorrow.

That said, I believe we're going much lower than 4100 in the medium to long run. Methinks somewhere near 3900.
 
large speculators have been very bearish, while price has been moving up, so bull case was to simply fade the herd. we just had 4 tight days in a row. expectation was that we have positive follow through today, or at the very least dip getting bought towards EOD for a stronger close. wanted to see follow through from tech leaders and/or improvement on the market breadths. Instead, none of them happened. tech leaders showing signs of rolling over, and the defensive sectors are outperforming. Furthermore, put/call ratio rose today, forming a potential local bottom, which in hindsight has typically signaled a local market top. so yea, definitely more reasons to be bearish now than bullish, as we remain in a range bound market, imo.
 
schizo said:
Nah, thanks but I'll pass on the offer. I'll unload when we go down to 4100 tomorrow.

That said, I believe we're going much lower than 4100 in the medium to long run. Methinks somewhere near 3900.
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Why not break it even, though?

You have two excellent short entries in a row. Surely if we sell off from here it should never be touched anyway. And if it does and you still believe in a sell off you can always re-enter.

FWIW, and take it with a grain of salt, my statistics gives low odds of a recovery higher today and if we open below yesterday's range the odds appear low of trading higher.

So, I can easily see that 4100 target for today.
 
Primarily looking to short this today. Not going to be as greedy as Schizo, so if I can get 4130 pre-market I'm a happy man and will take an early weekend. Pretty sure we're looking at a decent gap down by the Open with good chances of continuation lower.

Watch me get it wrong shorting near these lows... :)
 
Flagging near yesterday's low. After a week of moderate success, I think dip buyers of the range low will get creamed today.

I see an open gap from last week at 4120 on ES. Might be a good target for today's RTH session.

I may very well be wrong on this.
 
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