i want to say if we resolve this chop to the upside (definitively), there'll be a nice 3-5 day squeeze to 4300 (SPX), possibly next week.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
That is what I see taking place before retracing lower. But I’m biased as F cause I’m long
I think you said the exact same thing when we were trading at the lower range and I said we would go up to the upper range, only that you were bearish at the time.
I think you said the exact same thing when we were trading at the lower range and I said we would go up to the upper range, only that you were bearish at the time.
So are you saying that you are Morpheus and I’m Mr Anderson?
Choose one. Blue pill or the red pill, buddy? Oh wait, you're just a rogue AI.So are you saying that you are Morpheus and I’m Mr Anderson?
I thought I would be just a little bit more scientific about this
First the monthly, as we know markets like to cause to inflict maximum pain, especially the closer we get to tops and bottoms, I don't know about you, but I do see the 4300 as an ultimate tag to cause that pain to the shorters and to trap the FOMO crowd. We already previously tapped the 50% (4150) range and this is the double top many shorters are likely targeting. Hm, a squeeze to 4300 would be much more juicy to shake out weak sellers and to trap the FOMO that never learn that you should accumulate good stocks on the way down.
Secondly, the daily chart, we held the 'psychological' line of support, so we have not yet broken down as a matter of fact, this makes your call so far anticipative in nature, which is cool, I like those, but have you gone swing short on this call yet? I remain long for now.
And finally some stats for previous ranges and average:
Out of the previous 6 up swings we had the following ranges - 523, 373, 365, 685, 645, 432 (SPX).
The average swing was 503, the highest 685 and the lowest 365. The current swing is 355.
N.B. This doesn't give any more weight to my call over yours, anything is possible at any moment and time, sometimes we get it right, and others we get it wrong. As far as me being right on this occasion...what do they say about a broken clock?
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FWIW to give some credence to my old clock, it nailed the last 3/3 targets, 4200 SPX being the 4th one.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/spx-3-505-is-next.369252/
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/spx-3-505-is-next.369252/
Yesterday was a strong trend day up on a Thursday.
Historically, this suggests higher prices on Friday, but that could come about in various ways. If we open with a strong gap up that could easily be a sell on the Open for a move back towards yesterday's close, but with a small chance we'll see continuation and keep thrusting higher.
Opening near yesterday's close and a failure to thrust higher on the Open could easily be a reversal play lower.
The easiest play would be a gap down open in RTH for a move back up towards 80 or more.
I'm not uber-confident we'll see 4200 today as my data gives a mixed bag based on statistics. Threading carefully here.
I'm pleased to see that this prediction turned out fairly well...
Contrary to what many may believe, a strong trend day on a Thursday doesn't have a very high probability of follow through on Friday. There's generally a very high probability of taking out Thursday's high, but that's about it.
That 10:10 reversal bar going back inside Thursday's range and well below Thursday's Close was a great short trigger. I didn't take it of course as I was done for the day and generally find it hard to fade "strength" regardless of getting the correct signals to do so.
I've no idea where the market will move medium-term/long term, but this 4200 area have been hard to break through on prior attempts, so it does warrant some caution to the long side in the week to come.
I can see both a failure to breakout for a reversal lower or continuation higher for a bit. I've no idea, but I do like to use this as a rough roadmap. Fundamentally, there doesn't seem to be anything to suggest we won't take a plunge lower, though.
I'm happy to take it only day by day.
ES Daily
SPX Monthly
I can see both a failure to breakout for a reversal lower or continuation higher for a bit. I've no idea, but I do like to use this as a rough roadmap. Fundamentally, there doesn't seem to be anything to suggest we won't take a plunge lower, though.
I'm happy to take it only day by day.
ES Daily
SPX Monthly
Short 4171
SL 4191