ES Journal - 2023/2024

Looks like a good bull flag here for a move towards 4200 today. We went a bit too high, too fast, so we can be vulnerable for a pullback or even a reversal lower.

I may be early and didn't get the best entry, but I'm long from 72. Will stop out for a small loss and probably look to re-enter if I still believe in the long side at lower prices.
 
Screenshot 2023-04-14 at 09.07.26.png
Laissez Faire said:
Looks like a good bull flag here for a move towards 4200 today. We went a bit too high, too fast, so we can be vulnerable for a pullback or even a reversal lower.

I may be early and didn't get the best entry, but I'm long from 72. Will stop out for a small loss and probably look to re-enter if I still believe in the long side at lower prices.
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Yep, clearly seen on 60 min chart, what a day! Lots of strength behind the move, so likely a continuation today.
 
Master Pu said:
Yep, clearly seen on 60 min chart, what a day! Lots of strength behind the move, so likely a continuation today.
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Yesterday was a strong trend day up on a Thursday.

Historically, this suggests higher prices on Friday, but that could come about in various ways. If we open with a strong gap up that could easily be a sell on the Open for a move back towards yesterday's close, but with a small chance we'll see continuation and keep thrusting higher.

Opening near yesterday's close and a failure to thrust higher on the Open could easily be a reversal play lower.

The easiest play would be a gap down open in RTH for a move back up towards 80 or more.

I'm not uber-confident we'll see 4200 today as my data gives a mixed bag based on statistics. Threading carefully here. :)

If I weren't already long, I'd buy this dip, but I never average down, so... :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
Yesterday was a strong trend day up on a Thursday.

Historically, this suggests higher prices on Friday, but that could come about in various ways. If we open with a strong gap up that could easily be a sell on the Open for a move back towards yesterday's close, but with a small chance we'll see continuation and keep thrusting higher.

Opening near yesterday's close and a failure to thrust higher on the Open could easily be a reversal play lower.

The easiest play would be a gap down open in RTH for a move back up towards 80 or more.

I'm not uber-confident we'll see 4200 today as my data gives a mixed bag based on statistics. Threading carefully here. :)

If I weren't already long, I'd buy this dip, but I never average down, so... :)
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Wide range bar yesterday with a breakout of the pennant and still another 50 points to next resistance on SPX, ought to be more of a bullish sign, even though intraday shows a potential double top. I sense another 5-6 points to fall to -25% of yesterday's range which would also coincide with previous resistance. IMHO odds favour upside today, just as we know, getting in at the correct time can be tricky. Any entity that is bearish on market, looking at yesterday's breakout move, surely is having an 'oh shit' moment.

So far today, is a classic bull flag formation, very orderly retracement.
 
I suppose it could also be relevant if yesterday's move was mostly short covering on a short squeeze or if it was fresh buying. I suppose we'll never know, but I imagine a lot of it was short covering.

I still think this is a market that have people getting bullish at highs and bearish at lows with juicy counter-moves. That's why I'm threading a bit cautious here as it would be surprising to me if we don't see another big leg down at some point.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Looks like a good bull flag here for a move towards 4200 today. We went a bit too high, too fast, so we can be vulnerable for a pullback or even a reversal lower.

I may be early and didn't get the best entry, but I'm long from 72. Will stop out for a small loss and probably look to re-enter if I still believe in the long side at lower prices.
More...

Stopped for - 10. Maybe I was low-ticked, but I generally use 10 points as my maximum. Looking to re-enter here or maybe a bit lower.

Not going to get greedy today, so will be happy with 80 or so, I think.
 
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