ES Journal - 2023/2024

That's an initial FBO of the range high.

Often, the first breakout fails, but as this is a range high one have to consider the chance that it's a reversal area.

Most likely we lured in a few eager shorts and continue higher on the day. Squeeze, squeeze. :)

EDIT: NQ weakness is the one concern here for today. Hopefully, it puts in a higher low here and will start participating to the upside.
 
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Laissez Faire said:
Care to elaborate?

I never really used the COT report, but I think I've picked up that speculators generally are wrong. So, if speculators are very short here here, that sounds like we're set up for a nice short squeeze?

Or do you interpret it in some other way?
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large speculators are positioned short (blue line). last time it was this negative was during the 2020 bull market (during QE). another time it had a similar sentiment was going into the relief rally in 8/2022, I believe during the weekend of Jackson hole where the tone was super hawkish. I've seen that article shared around like 5 times today though. And last week, PMI was a huge miss, yet market bounced back. It's all about the reaction to the numbers.

One thing to note is that these reports come out on Fridays, but the data is from Tuesday, so it could be different now than what it says. Either way, it seems the short side has been and continues to be crowded, and r/r favors the upside.
 
spectastic said:
View attachment 311545
large speculators are positioned short (blue line). last time it was this negative was during the 2020 bull market (during QE). another time it had a similar sentiment was going into the relief rally in 8/2022, I believe during the weekend of Jackson hole where the tone was super hawkish. I've seen that article shared around like 5 times today though. And last week, PMI was a huge miss, yet market bounced back. It's all about the reaction to the numbers.

One thing to note is that these reports come out on Fridays, but the data is from Tuesday, so it could be different now than what it says. Either way, it seems the short side has been and continues to be crowded, and r/r favors the upside.
More...

Agree. There was a story from Zerohedge with charts someone else on the forum posted is that institutional players are the biggest shorts on SP options since 2011. That is a set-up for a major short-squeeze if the CPI comes in weaker than expected, and then coupled with a more-dovish-than-expected Fed meeting minutes report.
 
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