ES Journal - 2023/2024

NoahA said:
I honestly think LF was just asking you to share your rationale. Maybe we can all learn something.... That was the intent.
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Exactly, right.

It seems like a personal preference as some people just like to see trades posted, but I personally prefer if people would share what they're looking and base their trades on. It's like the saying about giving a man fish for a day versus teaching him to fish.

I also asked Chili yesterday what convinced him of his 4250/4300 target. I don't see why such questions can be considered condescending.

I'm also of the view that we may be closing in on a medium term top, but I'm not sure if we're quite there yet. Maybe @schizo saw something I don't, so that's all there is to it.

Unless I do use something which is secret (my statistical model for example), I don't mind sharing what I'm looking at and did in fact share the trigger for my latest trade yesterday. This is stuff that I think can be helpful for someone and put to use for the future in a similar situation.

Laissez Faire said:
NQ did not touch Friday's Close this morning. Seeing NQ taking out the Open and ES breaking above last week's high (once again) was my trigger.
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Laissez Faire said:
Looks like another day higher to me. ES 4170/75.

This is just basic trend-following and price targets, i.e., open gaps above.
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I went long at 54 and added one at 57. Average is 55.50.

I'm targeting 70 on this trade.

I may be early, so same procedure as yesterday and will take a small stop out, say around 50, if I'm early. And re-enter if the range low holds once again. Maybe B/E on the next thrust higher.

Rinse and repeat if stopped.

If I was extremely confident, I would just use a wide stop, but as I'm thinking we're closing in on a medium term top, I have to be cautious here. Like yesterday, NQ is still lagging behind a bit, but hopefully it can pick up some steam to at least close the gap from Friday.

Trade rationale: Trend is up and the pullback low held overnight. Nothing fancy.

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Hourly ES. I see demand below 50 for now.

Possible supply and a failure to breakout above ~ 60.

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NQ is a bit more sluggish and lagging behind coming into a range high here, but I'm assuming that gap from Friday's Close will be filled sooner than later.

The thrust higher late in yesterday's cash session failed, but maybe we'll get continuation on this attempt. Could always fall back in range for either a reversal or more basing first:

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This is what I see right now. Nothing fancy and no secret sauce. Basically, I'm always looking for either continuation or failure. And if it's failure, I have to consider if it's a permanent failure or just an initial failure to breakout as these instruments usually will make a few attempts before finally moving.
 
NQ went parabolic. A bit too high and too fast.

I closed out that trade here at 66.50 on a trailing stop. The sun is shining and I have other stuff to attend to, so don't want to take the risk of a pullback, but I'm sure we'll see 70 as well from here. 70 was what I had in mind and we came close, so that's okay.

Good day for my piker account. Done for the day unless I see something I really, really like later.

Good luck all. :)

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