ES Journal - 2023/2024

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Laissez Faire said:
What's the clue, IYO? :)
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well you would think that with all those things I listed (poor breadth, bad news, etc), there would be more follow through to the sell side, and vix would be jacked up. but neither is true. so when what should happen doesn't, the opposite might be true. so I think edge is to the upside.

then again, there's also door #3, where we just chop on for another few months. we just broke some key levels, and recency bias might have people thinking more chops/traps are expected. So I suppose next few days would be critical to see if we get any follow through.
 
spectastic said:
well you would think that with all those things I listed (poor breadth, bad news, etc), there would be more follow through to the sell side, and vix would be jacked up. but neither is true. so when what should happen doesn't, the opposite might be true. so I think edge is to the upside.

then again, there's also door #3, where we just chop on for another few months. we just broke some key levels, and recency bias might have people thinking more chops/traps are expected. So I suppose next few days would be critical to see if we get any follow through.
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Unless there was some big news (which I have not heard), this seems like end of month window dressing to me.

The market really ran out of breath up here. I'm sure we'll go lower again soon enough.

Maybe one last push higher to close off the month.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Unless there was some big news (which I have not heard), this seems like end of month window dressing to me.

The market really ran out of breath up here. I'm sure we'll go lower again soon enough.

Maybe one last push higher to close off the month.
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possibly, but I'm not so concerned about the news and instead focus on the PA. I keep that stuff in the back of my head, but it's all BS to me because I have no information edge and certainly can't outsmart teams of Ivy league big brains on wall st.
 
spectastic said:
possibly, but I'm not so concerned about the news and instead focus on the PA. I keep that stuff in the back of my head, but it's all BS to me because I have no information edge and certainly can't outsmart teams of Ivy league big brains on wall st.
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Agreed. However, I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to have a general grasp of the news. As long as one does not read too much into it and understand that in the short term the market can move "against" the news.

By the way. Having a statistical model like discussed earlier this week isn't the end all - be all of trading. Today, my pre-market prediction was mostly right. Especially if we make a new pop into the HOD.

However, from A to B, the market covered a lot of ground including some deep retraces and I chopped myself up today. Even right now, we can still see a drop and go higher after that.
 
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