ES Journal - 2023/2024

Laissez Faire said:
I really dislike it, but for now it's all I know.

I agree with your read on incessant whipsaws, though. Less certain about 4200.
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I think we'll see more severe chops in the 2nd quarter than the 1st. Usually summer months are slow in a bull market but not so in a bear market. So if you dislike chops, you'll really love the next 3 months. :)

I figure it'll be 4200 since that's the top of the chop range.
 
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schizo said:
I think we'll see more severe chops in the 2nd quarter than the 1st. Usually summer months are slow in a bull market but not so in a bear market. So if you dislike chops, you'll really love the next 3 months. :)

I figure it'll be 4200 since that's the top of the chop range.
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But it’s a stealth bull market.
 
I hate to say this in hindsight, but my statistical model gave very high odds (+ 85 %) of a gap up open for today, Tuesday. What could be relevant at this point, though, is that it suggests that a larger gap up could be faded, so I would be careful chasing if we open "too high" today.

schizo said:
I think we'll see more severe chops in the 2nd quarter than the 1st. Usually summer months are slow in a bull market but not so in a bear market. So if you dislike chops, you'll really love the next 3 months. :)

I figure it'll be 4200 since that's the top of the chop range.
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Right. :)

I'm just waiting for that FOMC statement come Wednesday like everyone else. If the FED disappoints that 4200 level will have to wait a bit, I think.

There just seems to be too much bad stuff (inflation, rising rates, war in Europe and bank failures) going on at the moment to warrant any sustained rally. Now, someone will say that this is the exact reason why we'll rally, well, they said that on the entire way down as well... :)

Let's just take it a day at a time.
 
themickey said:
My calcs say another ~6 trading days of dithering around, then a chance for breakout.
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Posted the above last Wednesday on this thread.

Latest prognosis, Nasdaq is expected to break out ~Wednesday this week.
SPX breakout is expected ~Thursday this week.
(~ denotes high probability but not guaranteed).

I think we'll see this week rising including today, so you may ask, well the breakout is today.
No the breakouts are ~Wed & Thu because volumes will spike and they should be a more solid move on the day.

Highly unlikely any big move up today.
 
vanzandt said:
When SPY hit's 398.30... short ES then.
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i'm probably early. Just giving it a shot.
I was long for the move up overnight, BUT I got stopped for breakeven on a pullback before it made the move.
Maybe that's why i'm looking short lol.
But I feel we're close too a level for at least a retrace big enough to make a daytrade worth it
 
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