ES Journal - 2023/2024

Buy1Sell2 said:
Likely although I can see beating Tuesday's high.
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FOMC next week and currently banking worries. The festering may continue a bit longer and if we finally have a breakout to the upside I'm not so sure it's going to get legs in this range bound market.

Regarding the statistics you posted - one thing to keep in mind is that they're heavily skewed in favor of bull markets. Meaning, they may be less relevant in a bear or range bound market as we're currently in as those are the years that are likely to be the exception to those general trends.

I posted last year a filtered seasonality chart for the indices which suggested that year end was typically bearish in a bear market as opposed to bullish which is true in a bull market.
 
Wide Tailz said:
Can't believe how badly I got spanked thinking funny mentals instead of looking at horizontal support, resistance and trend lines. This past two months was an obvious corrective wave (and they are hard as anything to trade) but I kept trying to short it like 2008 was about to happen again.

Risk management is the only thing that kept me around to post this.

Newbies, just cut losses and do something fun for a while, then come back and look at levels and trend lines. Fundamental analysis is extremely dangerous.
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Sorry for your loss, but I thought you had the obvious figured out...? :)

I think fundamentals are more appropriate for non-leveraged and long term investing. For short or medium-term trading technicals are what matter. That is simply so because even if your fundamental view is correct, there may be a billion dollar fund that decides to buy or sell one day for other reasons than those fundamental factors and as a result may move the market greatly up or down. And even those that move the markets get it wrong a lot of the time.

While I keep it strictly technical, I do keep the general economic conditions in mind as a backdrop. Meaning, I see no reason right now to be excessively bullish or believe we're going to see any sustained up trend anytime soon. I may easily be wrong on that, but at least that's what I believe for now.
 
Laissez Faire said:
FOMC next week and currently banking worries. The festering may continue a bit longer and if we finally have a breakout to the upside I'm not so sure it's going to get legs in this range bound market.

Regarding the statistics you posted - one thing to keep in mind is that they're heavily skewed in favor of bull markets. Meaning, they may be less relevant in a bear or range bound market as we're currently in as those are the years that are likely to be the exception to those general trends.

I posted last year a filtered seasonality chart for the indices which suggested that year end was typically bearish in a bear market as opposed to bullish which is true in a bull market.
More...
They are just tendencies. Likely in a bear market, on average there may be better long opportunities in the seasonally strong months.
 
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