ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Wide Tailz]

Can't believe how badly I got spanked thinking funny mentals instead of looking at horizontal support, resistance and trend lines. This past two months was an obvious corrective wave (and they are hard as anything to trade) but I kept trying to short it like 2008 was about to happen again.

Risk management is the only thing that kept me around to post this.

Newbies, just cut losses and do something fun for a while, then come back and look at levels and trend lines. Fundamental analysis is extremely dangerous.

 

[Wide Tailz]

I'm rescinding my pivot perspective from a few pages ago, because two banks just failed. Long term chart counts out to a possible 5-3 pointing downward, and so does the latest MA bounce signal, however the daily and weekly timeframes are showing opposite directions.

Even the T/A seems to be indecisive, and at this point I believe the market will wait for the government to step in and do another TARP style liquidity swap for the long dated treasuries that are causing all the trouble on various banks' balance sheets (if they are market to market there will be a huge loss, so any "mass withdrawl" scenario will push them to insolvency).

The T/A is getting more decisive, at least the NQ. Three banks just got shut down and CS is circling the drain, and the tape is just shaking it off. Money is flowing into american technology for some reason.

 

[Overnight]

...Money is flowing into american technology for some reason.

That's probably because lower interest rates via lower inflation data are good for growth companies. The NAZ market is now trying to price in the possibility of a pause and then pivot during this calendar year.

Remember, the tech sectors took the biggest hits last year with rapidly rising rates, but the financials were great because it meant mo' money for banks. But now that inflation is dropping and the idea of a pause is boosting the most-beat up sector, and now the BANKS are getting monkeyhammered by the regional banking crisis, the situation is reversed.

Were it not for this banking shit, the overall mood would be higher on these past two inflation print days.

 

[vanzandt]

Barring any more bad news.... a big if at this point it would seem... but I think we go up tomorrow.
Fester on fellas... ttyl

Up .42% on the futures. Naz up slightly more.
Thing that bothers me... we didn't see a nice gap up on the open.
Careful going long tonight.
They will be gunning for the pajama traders, even if we do go up 50 points tomorrow.
In fact... you could almost short this thing here and put a tight stop overhead, and set things to grab 15 points at least.

Edit, as I typed that it's only up .31% now

 

[BeautifulStranger]

70 years:

Note those PE's btw.
edit: I guess that only goes to 2005. Just extend the line though.

PE's relative to interest rates might be a consideration. Nah! Where there is liquidity, there is a way! We are in the third year of a Presidential cycle and short term rates recently have been very responsive to market selloffs. Powell's next words... "Out of an abundance of caution...".

The bull market continues.

 

[Wide Tailz]

That's probably because lower interest rates via lower inflation data are good for growth companies. The NAZ market is now trying to price in the possibility of a pause and then pivot during this calendar year.

I like that logic, but I'm down 25% this year because I got seduced by another fundamental analysis story someone else told me. It's like the equity curve got hit by an asteroid. From now on I'm going to be a pattern recognizing robot. Maybe I can program an AI to make me cut losses and let winners run.

 

[schizo]

Fundamental analysis is extremely dangerous.

As I stated elsewhere, swing trading (and anything longer) is lethal in this environment.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Up .42% on the futures. Naz up slightly more.
Thing that bothers me... we didn't see a nice gap up on the open.
Careful going long tonight.
They will be gunning for the pajama traders, even if we do go up 50 points tomorrow.
In fact... you could almost short this thing here and put a tight stop overhead, and set things to grab 15 points at least.

Edit, as I typed that it's only up .31% now

Typically second half of March thru mid May has tendency to trade higher.

 

[vanzandt]

Typically second half of March thru mid May has tendency to trade higher.
View attachment 309101

That chart is convoluted and useless. Here, lets look at the last 7 years. I fail to see any validity your thesis.

Random at best B1.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

That chart is convoluted and useless. Here, lets look at the last 7 years. I fail to see any validity your thesis.
View attachment 309115

Random at best B1.