ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Buy1Sell2]

Ya think?

Yes---monthly chart showing October 1987 nearer the left side---

 

[vanzandt]

"Uptrend remains intact."

 

[Builder17]

Underwearers contributing mightily to the festering of the pattern. --What would not be expected is a market crash. We'll see as that is always a possibility at any time.

"show a little faith, theres magic in the night"
-the boss

 

[Laissez Faire]

I'm anticipating the initial move higher on the Open today towards 3900 with that as a potential failure point / reversal area. If no failure/stalling there, we can go all the way back up to 3950.

If, however, we won't see a bid on the Open, we can't rule out this as a trend day lower targeting last week's low. The action on the Open will be key here.

Just longed 3980, but will take a tight leash on it and happy to take it off for 10-20 points.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Would not be surprised to see us go green today or beat Tuesday's high tomorrow.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I'm anticipating the initial move higher on the Open today towards 3900 with that as a potential failure point / reversal area. If no failure/stalling there, we can go all the way back up to 3950.

If, however, we won't see a bid on the Open, we can't rule out this as a trend day lower targeting last week's low. The action on the Open will be key here.

Just longed 3980, but will take a tight leash on it and happy to take it off for 10-20 points.

3980?

 

[Laissez Faire]

3980?

My bad. 3880.

Will re-enter if stopped.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Covered at 91 for + 11 on a trailing stop at 09:33. Had a scalp pre-market as well.

Have to be somewhere, so figured I'd play it safe today.

Now, see how the market reversed off that 3900 area that I pointed out in advance.

We can easily drop from here. It's all very uncertain, IMO. The easy and predictable play was on the Open.

 

[Laissez Faire]

My best guess is that a break above 3904 would set up a move back inside yesterday's range.

A break below 3888,75 is more tricky as it can easily be a failure to breakout.

But, statistically, my trading model does give good odds of continuation lower (3860 / 3850) if that happens.

Good luck all.

 

[Laissez Faire]

A break below 3888,75 is more tricky as it can easily be a failure to breakout.

But, statistically, my trading model does give good odds of continuation lower (3860 / 3850) if that happens.

Looks like a confirmed break at this point. Wrong above 3895.

Most likely 3860/50 now. Could get loose if no bid down there.

I'm only watching FWIW.

EDIT: And wrong... That's why I generally dislike shorting near lows and think "chasing breakouts" as referenced in another thread is generally terrible advice. At least near lows.