ES Journal - 2023/2024

[vanzandt]

You didn't mean in 1 day, right? ... What a gap!

I didn't think so lol.
Maybe.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Festering!

I chuckled. No offense, B1S2.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Underwearers contributing mightily to the festering of the pattern. This is expected activity at this point to work to create support to eventually break out with a barnburner up. --What would not be expected is a market crash. We'll see as that is always a possibility at any time.

 

[vanzandt]

Underwearers contributing mightily to the festering of the pattern. .

Yeah those European bankers need to quit working from home. Put on some damn clothes and get back to the office. It looks like what's been festering has been banking contagion.
Check out your beloved XLF.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Underwearers contributing mightily to the festering of the pattern. This is expected activity at this point to work to create support to eventually break out with a barnburner up. --What would not be expected would be a market crash. We'll see as that is always a possibility at any time.

That one also made me chuckle...

Is there a formal or agreed upon definition of what's a market crash? I saw one reference being 10 % down on one or several days.

For the entire 2022 and 2023 so far, we didn't print a single day with a low reading exceeding 5 % down. We came close, but still not < - 5 %. Most down days were around - 3 % or so on ES. For NQ maybe we did exceed 5 % as I don't track that index closely. So, fairly contained and controlled.

It's more of a slow grinder bear trapping both bulls and bears within a wide range at the moment.

 

[vanzandt]

Underwearers contributing mightily to the festering of the pattern. This is expected activity at this point to work to create support to eventually break out with a barnburner up. --What would not be expected would be a market crash. We'll see as that is always a possibility at any time.

PPI looks good though.
Inflation coming down better than thought.
Powell will almost certainly back off now.
Algo's are in high gear now recalculating their positions; I hope all that electricity isn't coming from fossil fuels.

 

[vanzandt]

Is there a formal or agreed upon definition of what's a market crash? I saw one reference being 10 % down on one or several days.

I would say instead of a quantified percentage... marketwide capitulation.
When fund managers are basically puking at their desks.
Or jumping out windows.

Or when CNBC wheels Art Cashin out 3 days in a row.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

That one also made me chuckle...

Is there a formal or agreed upon definition of what's a market crash? I saw one reference being 10 % down on one or several days.

For the entire 2022 and 2023 so far, we didn't print a single day with a low reading exceeding 5 % down. We came close, but still not < - 5 %. Most down days were around - 3 % or so on ES. For NQ maybe we did exceed 5 % as I don't track that index closely. So, fairly contained and controlled.

It's more of a slow grinder bear trapping both bulls and bears within a wide range at the moment.

Crashes as I define it are 1 day events in my view with roughly a greater than 10 percent haircut. One thing to note---it's possible to have a crash and yet continue an uptrend. Look at October 1987 for example.

 

[vanzandt]

One thing to note---it's possible to have a crash and yet continue an uptrend. Look at October 1987 for example.

Ya think?

 

[vanzandt]

One thing to note---it's possible to have a crash and yet continue an uptrend. Look at October 1987 for example.

70 years:

Note those PE's btw.
edit: I guess that only goes to 2005. Just extend the line though.