ES Journal - 2023/2024

Late shorts getting rekt.

I already exploited my edge for today, so calling it a day after recovering from a drawdown from pre-market gambling and consider this day overall a bit chancy. I feel like a formula one driver trading the Open on days like these... :)

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Waiting for Emergency Fed Meeting to end. Starts at 7:30 PT. Tried to trade, but too volatile for my short-term trades. Churred 8 trades for a +200USD gross.

This is Crisis trading, but still reasonably orderly.
 
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I don't pay much attention to news, but I would opine here that The Fed believes that they are at least partially to blame for the SVB collapse. I realize that SVB wasn't hedging risk, but according to reports, they had invested customer deposits in investment grade government debt and The Fed quick rate increases caused those instruments to decline in value quickly. I look for rate increases to pause.


I was thinking this through last night, and that scenario is plausible. Another one is that Powell "partial pivots" to slower hikes since the dollar is under pressure due to the failed sanctions and brics brotherhood getting ressurrected (Saudi Arabia no longer using dollars to settle oil sales was the tell).

The "BTFP" (not to be construed as Buy the Fu#&ing Pivot) will allow other banks with the same long dated treasures to borrow against them now, backstopping any more bank run insolvency situationz.

Daily trend is still down, but so is my account this month. :(

*edit- adding 100 sqqq here, overnight face ripping rally fizzled out
 

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Mile Wilson says to sell any bounce, I believe that.

I have some money in Signature Bank, better get there today to close my account, if the branch is still open-:( otherwise have to do online.
 
Mile Wilson says to sell any bounce, I believe that.

I have some money in Signature Bank, better get there today to close my account, if the branch is still open-:( otherwise have to do online.

very lucky i closed short at 3825 from january 5th, entry price was 3827.75, sat through a drawdown, now i am generally lean toward long.
 

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