ES Journal - 2023/2024

[themickey]

The ES prolly go lower after hours to gain leverage for tomorrow's up move.

 

[chillibean]

moving stop to BE

looking for 3880 or so if it doesn't come abck up to hit my BE

 

[hipster ned]

From the outside it could appear like you took on a view, i.e., long/bull market, and now you’re defending that view in face of evidence to the contrary.

Am I wrong?

You must have missed the last 5+ years….he’s been doing that forever

 

[easymon1]

should be up from here, not going lower. If it goes lower,

Got it. Clear as mud.
In other news...
For Price Action players, watch for tested setups with triggers in your timeframe of interest.
If you don't have any ...

 

[chillibean]

looking for 3880 or so if it doesn't come abck up to hit my BE
View attachment 308414

locking in a few ticks
See if we can get a decent dump overnight and tomorrow!

 

[Overnight]

locking in a few ticks
See if we can get a decent dump overnight and tomorrow!
View attachment 308429

Looks like you got it so far. BOJ must have come out hawkish for this dump? If the Jobs report is hot tomorrow, I expect a cascading effect down into the inflation prints next week, considering how the banks performed today on nothing at all. Something about this lingering "credit risk"?

 

[vanzandt]

fwiw:

_____________________________________

As to the rest of the post looking forward, I feel pretty sure the payroll #'s tomorrow won't stop this decline. Powell more than likely knew the #'s anyway but lets say they come in favorable, if the S&P gets anywhere close to today's highs on a dead cat bounce.... that would be an excellent entry for a short.

There is no impetus whatsoever for this market to rally aside from the inevitable upspikes that occur on the way down. As I explained to someone earlier today, those spikes have to happen, or else everyone would get rich when it's obvious to everyone things are overpriced for the current economic environment. Markets never go straight down over time, there are always sharp spikes up. Last Friday was a perfect example.

Right now there are far too many geopolitical unknowns, and on top of that Powell has made it clear he is taking no prisoners. If tomorrow's NFP #'s come in light and ignite a bounce at 8:30 that continues throughout the day, imo, either institute a short position or take the opportunity to get out and get in cash or Treasury's.

3778 here we come.
And we'll re-evaluate things there.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Threw in the towel, waiting this one out. I always seem to put on size before taking a loss. The only solution now is to always trade big!

 

[themickey]

The ES prolly go lower after hours to gain leverage for tomorrow's up move.

I'm reasonably confident in what's happening, seen it numerous times.
Drive down or up price after hours in the opposite direction of where it's going when market opens in order to gain as much leverage as possible.
1-2 hours prior to market open, price will begin to reverse hard.
The ATH futures traders are currently deliberately capitilizing on the current fear and will run it down until about 6am.
That's my call for next 12 hours.
In conclusion, Fri 10th RTH will be a strongish up day.

 

[Overnight]

...
Drive down or up price after hours in the opposite direction of where it's going when market opens in order to gain as much leverage as possible...

I don't get what you mean by that, "As much leverage as possible"...

What I saw today was a sell-off because whisper numbers are saying the jobs number will be hot, so funds were selling off to capture gains...Getting ahead of the sell-off to come, as it were.

If you mean in the context of capturing some dry powder to sling-shot on a soft jobs number, then yeah, I'm all for it!