And if the catalyst didn't happen, I am darn sure the market would have closed red. It's not TA, it is FA. FA rulez the roost. It is hypersensitive to monetary policy, and has been for just over a year now.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
And if the catalyst didn't happen, I am darn sure the market would have closed red. It's not TA, it is FA. FA rulez the roost. It is hypersensitive to monetary policy, and has been for just over a year now.
Overnight: You just can’t believe that it’s possible to read the tape in advance of news. That’s the lens you see the market through and that is why you remain where you are as a trader.
It wasn't scheduled news! Did you see Bostic anywhere on an economic calendar? And even if you did, would you have known what he would have said? The market is reactive as much as it is proactive. And when the market-moving events occur that shift from expectations, we get reversals.
And what tape?!? My chart shows there was NO "tape", there was just a reaction to Fed comments. What does that even mean, "Reading the tape" in this day and age?
It means even if you missed the initial spike, you could have gotten in as it retraced for a nice run up.
What you are trying to convince me of is that before 1:35 PM EST (on your chart 10:30 AM PST), the tape was showing that we would spike. I do not see it on your chart. Please point out that indication. Because that is what formakat is saying.
Well, you certainly wouldn't have known about the spike IN ADVANCE. But you could have simply put a resting buy order just above the yellow line and used the measured move (the two arrows) to come up with the profit target. Then you could have taken your profit, or if like me, flipped short at 3967-ish and rode it down as it retraced back to the line.
Now this is all in hindsight, so it's easier said than done. But you could technically "read the tape" by PREDICTING and REACTING to price action as I described. You really don't need to be alert to any breaking news or the fundamentals.
But the fundies are what created that price action in the first place! Once the FA/news whatever you call it happened, THAT is what drove the PA! I HAVE to believe you were there when Trump was saying shit in Twitter that moved the markets bigly on an intraday scale. That is now what these Fed folks' comments do. There is no way to plan for it.
