ES Journal - 2023/2024

It is a difficult call. Cash and futures are not synced... in both action and volume. Additionally, the charting time factor of RTH or 24hr, is a variable of analysis.

Here is S&P CASH index with default TradingView settings...

Of note, is Friday opening, high, and closing BELOW Thursday low.
Volume on Friday was highest since the drop of February 9.

View attachment 306750


Here is ES with TradingView default settings.

View attachment 306751
Either way, the close on Friday was a strong one.
 
Friday's candlestick on daily chart. Have to go back a long way to find one of these in a market that is pulling back. I interpret it as likely bullish but Tuesday's action will be needed to verify.
View attachment 306749

Friday opened mid range and closed on top of the range. Here's the last prior occurrences.

Personally, I wouldn't read too much into it for long term price action, but it does appear like it's a good set-up for a move higher the next day. Note however that a gap up the next day appears to be sold.

To me, it looks like we're stuck in a range here, so I'm just going to see if we can see a move back to mid-range or higher, say 4120, and then take it from there.

upload_2023-2-19_19-22-4.png
 
Friday's candlestick on daily chart. Have to go back a long way to find one of these in a market that is pulling back. I interpret it as likely bullish but Tuesday's action will be needed to verify.
View attachment 306749


I'm not a candlestick fan, and certainly not a single candle, but here is what Bulkowski has to say about Fridays candle...

The dragonfly doji is an interesting name for a candle that is supposed to act as a bullish reversal. It is a reversal candle, but only half the time. Random, in other words. If you see a dragonfly doji in the bush, do not be frightened. The 10-day performance after the breakout ranks it 98th out of 103 candles, where 1 is best. In other words, ignore it. Its bite is usually not fatal. Usually.

https://thepatternsite.com/Dragonfly.html
 
Friday opened mid range and closed on top of the range. Here's the last prior occurrences.

Personally, I wouldn't read too much into it for long term price action, but it does appear like it's a good set-up for a move higher the next day. Note however that a gap up the next day appears to be sold.

To me, it looks like we're stuck in a range here, so I'm just going to see if we can see a move back to mid-range or higher, say 4120, and then take it from there.

View attachment 306753
Your chart though is the 24 hr chart.
 
I'm not a candlestick fan, and certainly not a single candle, but here is what Bulkowski has to say about Fridays candle...

The dragonfly doji is an interesting name for a candle that is supposed to act as a bullish reversal. It is a reversal candle, but only half the time. Random, in other words. If you see a dragonfly doji in the bush, do not be frightened. The 10-day performance after the breakout ranks it 98th out of 103 candles, where 1 is best. In other words, ignore it. Its bite is usually not fatal. Usually.

https://thepatternsite.com/Dragonfly.html
Correct----a dragonfly doji by itself does not mean anything, but the followup day is the confirm.
 
The 390 minute time frame doesn't appear to be giving accurate info. The close Fri was less than 2 pts above the open.

Was your candle from the actual SPX index?

ES on Friday closed 16:00 at 4088.25. 12 points above the Open.

I don't pay close attention to the differences between ES/SPX open/closing prices (and not forgetting the cash/futures premium), but there will often be some differences. Roughly, it should be similar, though.
 
Was your candle from the actual SPX index?

ES on Friday closed 16:00 at 4088.25. 12 points above the Open.

I don't pay close attention to the differences between ES/SPX open/closing prices (and not forgetting the cash/futures premium), but there will often be some differences. Roughly, it should be similar, though.
upload_2023-2-19_13-55-20.png
 
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