ES Journal - 2023/2024

[hipster ned]

That's why you need to use an algo. Algo is completely agnostic. As long as it's profitable, how it trades shouldn't matter to you (largely because you're not in control anyway).

Observing your trades, you arent using an algo

 

[hipster ned]

No doubt about the fun part. But it will completely disrupt the market as well. I'm sure manual trading will become extinct as AI becomes saturated. Most of us here will need to fold shop and look for another job like the CME pit traders. Sad to say.

So you honestly believe that the public release is the beginning of the AI bot? Come on

 

[schizo]

Observing your trades, you arent start using an algo

Actually, it is in operation. But as you can see from the sheer volume of the trades, I wouldn't wanna post 430 trades for anyone's viewing pleasure.

That said, trades that I post here are from my discretionary trading account.

 

[schizo]

So you honestly believe that the public release is the beginning of the AI bot? Come on

What? You haven't used ChatGPT yet? The day will surely come. The question isn't so much if but when.

AI will not just disrupt the stock market. It will completely turn many industries upside down, and I don't mean only the blue collar will be affected. Many of the top white collar professions will close down. For example, surgeons will be replaced by AI robots. Even lawyers can be replaced as we've already seen from what ChatGPT is capable of. Heck I don't think even college professors are safe.

 

[hipster ned]

I understand and I’m not a fan in the least, but that’s a separate five hour discussion

 

[hipster ned]

Perhaps the Chat garbage is nothing more than a trained AI momo trader. why not? the imbeciles who created it have learned well that bidding everything higher is how the entire fin ecosystem works

 

[Bad_Badness]

No doubt about the fun part. But it will completely disrupt the market as well. I'm sure manual trading will become extinct as AI becomes saturated. Most of us here will need to fold shop and look for another job like the CME pit traders. Sad to say.

That is possible.

But I am sure those common patterns - PA's that cause newbies to freak out are Algo plays. E.g. the frequent S/R triple tests with the last test a "breakout" past only to reverse. Both the Break Out and the Reverse are high speed, rapid blocks of trades, enough to move 2-3 points sweeping the bid/ask. No one does that manually. It is not as if someone at home is hitting a series of buttons rapid fire to fill at market or liquid, 10, 15,7, 25, 50 super fast.

 

[schizo]

But I am sure those common patterns - PA's that cause newbies to freak out are Algo plays. E.g. the frequent S/R triple tests with the last test a "breakout" past only to reverse. Both the Break Out and the Reverse are high speed, rapid blocks of trades, enough to move 2-3 points sweeping the bid/ask. No one does that manually. It is not as if someone at home is hitting a series of buttons rapid fire to fill at market or liquid, 10, 15,7, 25, 50 super fast.

In that case, don't you think these algos will only get better over time? Manual traders are already at a great disadvantage. What should happen to them when these algos are run by AI/ML bots? They have no chance at survival IMO. Here I'm talking about mostly day traders, not long term swing traders or investors.

You don't need to look very far. Scalping used to be a lucrative trading method...well, until the rise of the algos. Now scalping is no longer a viable strategy.

 

[mervyn]

I am curious about an item involved in your trading decisions. You had mentioned high PE's the other day, but I noticed that you do quite a few RT's through the day. Howe do the PE's play into your intraday analysis?

I shorted probably 90% of the trades since the beginning of this year, never carry long positions overnight, few points here and there, expecting a marco downturn. But I can be convinced if there is a bargain to go long like Nov/Dec last year, maybe 3800-3900 range I can switch to long side. Right now I don’t feel it is a bull market, perhaps is 0DTE SPX/SPY call/put has something to do with the bullishness.

 

[Bad_Badness]

Yes, but they will deploy in new areas, like crypto. ES is such an old battleground. Scalping died when the pit died, price range changed, DOM spoofing, the massive drop in volume when everyone ran to FX like the Euro-Dollar. ES is a small place relative to all the other places to trade-deploy combined.

There should always be some opportunity. Right now the bots leave tracks.

Also there is so much "fresh meat" from the pandemic, options mania, memes, whatever quitting, Mobile work etc, I think we got a few more golden years before the masses wake up. Wake up to the fact trading on phones, using canned TA, and having access to markets are hyped. Just look at MES. ES is already a Mini. MES is a play thing for entertainment, gateway drug type thing with outlandish comms.

We don't have to be better than the Algos, just better than the other traders at dancing with the Algos. I say that because there are a lot of small lot (retail) fills going on every day.

Just my humble opinion, and only referring to ES, but probably applies to NQ, but not so much to YM, ZN and lesser retail trafficked futures.

In that case, don't you think these algos will only get better over time? Manual traders are already at a great disadvantage. What should happen to them when these algos are run by AI/ML bots? They have no chance at survival IMO. Here I'm talking about mostly day traders, not long term swing traders or investors.

You don't need to look very far. Scalping used to be a lucrative trading method...well, until the rise of the algos. Now scalping is no longer a viable strategy.