ES Journal - 2023/2024

schizo said:
Neverthless, I got the trend all messed up today. It's a tough market for sure.
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Yep, last couple of hours I am looking to hitch a ride up to no avail. I still expect a move up into the last hour . We will see.
 
NoahA said:
I feel this way as well. Stats are always taken in an environment and once the environment changes, I think so would those stats.

The playbook is also different because of the interest rate environment that we are in. Everything I keep watching on macro stuff states that the market sees lower rates for 2023, since the market is convinced the Fed will have to pivot. But what if the rates don't come down?

Trading this rally has been a bitch because I'm just so bearish. Luckily I can see a long setup for a day trade, but zooming out far enough has me shaking my head. Its nothing but rate rises and high paying job loses in the tech sector. The huge 517k number that came in on Friday I have seen be attributed to an aberration with how the numbers are counted, or simply people working multiple jobs. The hourly wage hasn't ticked up, and other metrics point to this number being not reliable.

Anyway, the stats thing and how the data is collected if huge. For example, something as simply as buying at a 50% retracement works, in a bullish environment. But if you could redo stats with a simple filter accounting for trend, I'm sure all the stats or how often trades work would change measurably.
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Exactly. We just left behind us a decade where nothing but the FED and central banks worldwide mattered as the world was flowing over with free money. That's not the case today.

I closed down my charts and am on another computer, so stealing what I posted yesterday here, but I'm just thinking that people were fairly bullish last year just around this level. See orange lines.

Fundamentally, I don't see what really changed between these price points.

upload_2023-2-8_20-33-22.png
 
NoahA said:
There is no way you can even go back 10 years. Look at NQ. A 100 point day happened once every few months. Now, you can't get less than a 100 point day.

Maybe if your strategy account for volatility it would be more viable, but there is no way you could take your strategy from 10 years ago and just multiply all the variables by 5 and still trade it the same.
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Generally, I don't go back any longer than 1 or 2 years mostly. I want to weigh the most recent past the most. Also, the kind of data I look at is mostly normalized. Think % change and not actual points. That's the only way to make a correct relative comparison.

I'm not sure if you missed it or not, but I was actually surprised myself when I had to compute some data on a claim by SunTrader that most days were down last year (or something to that effect). Interestingly, most days were actually up and the biggest ranges were to the upside.

From a day trading perspective most days are a repetition of a common theme and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Yet, like I said I think it warrants some caution using statistics moving forward if the analogue is the last 10 year or even 80 years. Because when in history did we have a decade long bull market fueled by massive central bank support and zero interest rates? I'm not sure that happened before.
 
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