ES Journal - 2023/2024

One thing to consider is that we're in a post-FED market regime that should be different from the prior decade. That means a different playbook.

Further, it could render a lot of prior data points and statistics useless.

So, when someone says, "For the last 10 years XYZ happened 90 % of the time", can we really trust those statistics?

Thoughts?
 
I think last 10 years isn't a long enough sample set. Most of the data I have pointed to supporting a bull market goes back at least 80 years.

That being said, we have also discussed that February is typically not a strong month seasonally so we could still be in a bull yet have some rough going this month.

Laissez Faire said:
One thing to consider is that we're in a post-FED market regime that should be different from the prior decade. That means a different playbook.

Further, it could render a lot of prior data points and statistics useless.

So, when someone says, "For the last 10 years XYZ happened 90 % of the time", can we really trust those statistics?

Thoughts?
More...
 
Laissez Faire said:
One thing to consider is that we're in a post-FED market regime that should be different from the prior decade. That means a different playbook.

Further, it could render a lot of prior data points and statistics useless.

So, when someone says, "For the last 10 years XYZ happened 90 % of the time", can we really trust those statistics?

Thoughts?
More...
Schizophrenia or Bipolar?
 
formikatrading said:
I think last 10 years isn't a long enough sample set. Most of the data I have pointed to supporting a bull market goes back at least 80 years.

That being said, we have also discussed that February is typically not a strong month seasonally so we could still be in a bull yet have some rough going this month.
More...

10 years should be more than enough for intraday data, IMO.

Regarding using the last 80 years that raises another question: How relevant is market history 80 years ago for what's going on today?

It could be. Just asking.
 
Laissez Faire said:
One thing to consider is that we're in a post-FED market regime that should be different from the prior decade. That means a different playbook.

Further, it could render a lot of prior data points and statistics useless.

So, when someone says, "For the last 10 years XYZ happened 90 % of the time", can we really trust those statistics?

Thoughts?
More...
I feel this way as well. Stats are always taken in an environment and once the environment changes, I think so would those stats.

The playbook is also different because of the interest rate environment that we are in. Everything I keep watching on macro stuff states that the market sees lower rates for 2023, since the market is convinced the Fed will have to pivot. But what if the rates don't come down?

Trading this rally has been a bitch because I'm just so bearish. Luckily I can see a long setup for a day trade, but zooming out far enough has me shaking my head. Its nothing but rate rises and high paying job loses in the tech sector. The huge 517k number that came in on Friday I have seen be attributed to an aberration with how the numbers are counted, or simply people working multiple jobs. The hourly wage hasn't ticked up, and other metrics point to this number being not reliable.

Anyway, the stats thing and how the data is collected if huge. For example, something as simply as buying at a 50% retracement works, in a bullish environment. But if you could redo stats with a simple filter accounting for trend, I'm sure all the stats or how often trades work would change measurably.
 
Laissez Faire said:
10 years should be more than enough for intraday data, IMO.

Regarding using the last 80 years that raises another question: How relevant is market history 80 years ago for what's going on today?

It could be. Just asking.
More...
There is no way you can even go back 10 years. Look at NQ. A 100 point day happened once every few months. Now, you can't get less than a 100 point day.

Maybe if your strategy account for volatility it would be more viable, but there is no way you could take your strategy from 10 years ago and just multiply all the variables by 5 and still trade it the same.
 
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